Indonesia's producer waste-reduction roadmap, Permen LHK No. 75 of 2019, asks manufacturers to cut the waste generated by their products and packaging by 30 percent by the end of 2029. The target is accumulated over products and over primary, secondary, and tertiary packaging, with primary packaging named as the priority. We examine how fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) manufacturers might progress toward that target, using the provisions as published and a simulated panel of 12 producers for 2023 to 2025, calibrated to published parameters where a published anchor exists. Across all layers, the panel's claimed reduction rose from 7.4 percent of the baseline in 2023 to 21.1 percent in 2025. Three producers already claimed more than 30 percent, five were gaining fast enough to reach it by 2029, and four were not, needing between 5 and 13 years at their latest pace. Primary packaging accounted for 46.3 percent of the baseline but 65.9 percent of the 2025 claim, so outer layers lagged. Only 40 percent of every claimed reduction appeared to be a lower volume of packaging placed on the market; the rest must be documented through recycling, reuse, or other routes that the market data cannot show. Lightweighting and recycled content made up two thirds of claimed kilograms. Because the target is cumulative and layer-blind in its arithmetic, producers can reach it with very uneven effort across layers. We argue about reporting placed-on-market tonnage alongside claimed reductions and for interim checkpoints that the regulation itself does not set
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