<![CDATA[Arrears in motor vehicle tax (PKB) represent deferred revenue that subnational governments can only partly recover, yet little is known about how strongly arrears recovery translates into local own-source revenue (PAD). This study estimates the elasticity of PAD with respect to PKB arrears collection using monthly administrative records of the Regional Revenue Service Unit (UPTPPD) Region I, Pontianak, West Kalimantan, from January 2020 to June 2022 (n = 30), a window covering the Covid-19 shock and a provincial penalty-waiver program. After Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests showed that PAD is trend-stationary, log-log regressions with a deterministic trend were estimated by ordinary least squares, and inference was based on Newey-West standard errors following a battery of diagnostic tests. Arrears collection has a positive and significant effect on PAD: in the preferred specification the elasticity is 0.183 (p = 0.001), so a 10% rise in arrears collected coincides with a 1.83% rise in PAD in the same month, equivalent to about IDR 3.33 of PAD per rupiah of arrears at sample means. The estimate is robust to a penalty-waiver dummy, which itself is insignificant, and to excluding the peak month of September 2021. Because the PAD response exceeds the arrears amount, arrears recovery appears to trigger a broader compliance spillover rather than a one-off cash inflow. Provincial tax authorities should therefore treat penalty waivers as a complement to sustained enforcement and registry updating, not as a substitute.]]>
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