Shadow economy refers to economic activities, both legal and illegal, that are not included in GDP calculations. It brings various economic and social challenges to Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the size of the shadow economy across provinces in Indonesia in 2024. This research uses 2024 cross-sectional data from 38 provinces. The variables used are tax burden, unemployment, corruption, population with low-to-medium education level, electrification rate, informal workers, and currency in circulation. These variables were analyzed using MIMIC modeling. The results show that tax burden, unemployment, and corruption have a significant positive effect in forming the shadow economy. Meanwhile, the electrification rate and currency in circulation have a positive effect, whereas informal workers have a negative effect in reflecting the shadow economy. The estimated size of shadow economy as a percentage of GRDP is highest in Jakarta at 22.21 percent and lowest in Central Papua at 6.21 percent.
Copyrights © 2026