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All Journal Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Ni Putu Christina Maharani Nada
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Estimasi Shadow Economy pada Tingkat Provinsi di Indonesia Tahun 2024 dengan Pemodelan Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) Ni Putu Christina Maharani Nada; Nasrudin Nasrudin
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2720

Abstract

Shadow economy refers to economic activities, both legal and illegal, that are not included in GDP calculations. It brings various economic and social challenges to Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the size of the shadow economy across provinces in Indonesia in 2024. This research uses 2024 cross-sectional data from 38 provinces. The variables used are tax burden, unemployment, corruption, population with low-to-medium education level, electrification rate, informal workers, and currency in circulation. These variables were analyzed using MIMIC modeling. The results show that tax burden, unemployment, and corruption have a significant positive effect in forming the shadow economy. Meanwhile, the electrification rate and currency in circulation have a positive effect, whereas informal workers have a negative effect in reflecting the shadow economy. The estimated size of shadow economy as a percentage of GRDP is highest in Jakarta at 22.21 percent and lowest in Central Papua at 6.21 percent.
Co-Authors Nasrudin Nasrudin