<![CDATA[Tourism contributes over 18 percent of Bali's regional GDP, making the local economy particularly sensitive to external disruptions, climate variability among them. Using an ARDL bounds testing framework with the IDR/USD exchange rate as a control variable, this study examines the short- and long-run effects of two satellite-derived climate variables, namely CHIRPS precipitation and MODIS land surface temperature, on international tourist arrivals to Bali from May 2022 to May 2026. Results confirm a long-run equilibrium relationship between climate and arrivals (F=11.574; p=1×10⁻⁶). Precipitation proves to be the more consistent climate predictor, with a long-run elasticity of −0.181 (p=0.001). Land surface temperature carries a negative coefficient in the expected direction (elasticity −2.204; p=0.073), though significant only at the 10 percent level. The estimated half-life of approximately 2.2 months indicates that Bali's tourism market adjusts to climate shocks within a relatively short window.]]>
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