Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026

Analisis Middle Income Trap pada Negara-negara di Kawasan ASEAN

I Kadek Surya Wisesa Adnyana (Unknown)
I Made Arcana (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
03 Nov 2026

Abstract

Middle Income Trap (MIT) remains a major challenge for ASEAN developing countries in achieving the ASEAN Community Vision 2045. This study aims to analyze the effect of the 3i framework (investment, infusion, innovation) on GDP per capita and to project whether ASEAN developing countries can escape middle-income status by 2045. Using panel data from eight ASEAN countries for 2000–2023 with GCF, HDI, FDI, TO, and internet penetration as variables, the study applies FGLS- SUR panel regression and Support Vector Regression (SVR) projection. Results show that HDI and internet penetration have significant positive effects, GCF and TO have significant negative effects, while FDI is insignificant and removed through backward elimination. Based on the SVR projection scenario, none of the developing ASEAN countries is projected to reach the high-income threshold by 2045, with Malaysia closest to the threshold. These findings suggest that achieving the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 requires stronger physical investment quality and more productive economic openness.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

semnasoffstat

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

Description

prosiding seminar ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan berbagai pemikiran solutif, inovatif, dan adaptif terkait isu, strategi, dan metode yang memanfaatkan official ...