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All Journal Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
I Kadek Surya Wisesa Adnyana
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Catalyst for Growth: Analisis Multiplier Effect Investasi IKN Terhadap Perekonomian Kalimantan Timur I Kadek Surya Wisesa Adnyana; Selly Dian Fadila; Dara Sakina; Muhammad Omar Zudan Fahrizal; Fitri Kartiasih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2645

Abstract

The Nusantara Capital City (IKN) in East Kalimantan is a national strategic project expected to drive economic growth. This study analyzes the impact of the initial investment in the IKN’s development on the economy of East Kalimantan using Input–Output (I–O) analysis. The 2024 I–O table was updated using the RAS method and used to simulate an investment of Rp56.2 trillion under two scenarios. The results show that construction and manufacturing are key sectors, while mining and quarrying which contribute 39.26% to the regional gross domestic product (GRDP) are not considered key sectors. IKN investment has a positive impact on output, net domestic product (NDP), household income, and employment. Simulation 1 yields higher output and employment. Simulation 2 yields higher household income with relatively similar NTB and more widespread benefits. These findings highlight the importance of investment allocation and strengthening broadly interconnected sectors to support East Kalimantan’s economic diversification.
Analisis Middle Income Trap pada Negara-negara di Kawasan ASEAN I Kadek Surya Wisesa Adnyana; I Made Arcana
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2791

Abstract

Middle Income Trap (MIT) remains a major challenge for ASEAN developing countries in achieving the ASEAN Community Vision 2045. This study aims to analyze the effect of the 3i framework (investment, infusion, innovation) on GDP per capita and to project whether ASEAN developing countries can escape middle-income status by 2045. Using panel data from eight ASEAN countries for 2000–2023 with GCF, HDI, FDI, TO, and internet penetration as variables, the study applies FGLS- SUR panel regression and Support Vector Regression (SVR) projection. Results show that HDI and internet penetration have significant positive effects, GCF and TO have significant negative effects, while FDI is insignificant and removed through backward elimination. Based on the SVR projection scenario, none of the developing ASEAN countries is projected to reach the high-income threshold by 2045, with Malaysia closest to the threshold. These findings suggest that achieving the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 requires stronger physical investment quality and more productive economic openness.
Co-Authors Dara Sakina Fitri Kartiasih I Made Arcana Muhammad Omar Zudan Fahrizal Selly Dian Fadila