Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Terpadu
Vol 19, No 1 (2026)

Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Balance, and Inflation as Drivers of Provincial Economic Growth in Indonesia

Enny Susilowati Mardjono (Universitas Dian Nuswantoro)
Juli Ratnawati (Universitas Dian Nuswantoro)
Dian Indriana Hapsari (Universitas Dian Nuswantoro)
Norliza Che Yahya (Universiti Teknologi MARA)



Article Info

Publish Date
19 Oct 2026

Abstract

This study examines contemporaneous associations between trade balance, inflation, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth in a balanced panel of 34 Indonesian provincial codes observed over nine quarters (2021Q1–2023Q1; N = 306). The supplied workbook is analyzed using pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), province fixed effects, and two-way province-and-quarter fixed effects; inference for the latter uses province-clustered standard errors. Relative to pooled OLS (adjusted R² = 0.092), the two-way fixed-effects specification explains substantially more sample variation (adjusted R² = 0.472). In that specification, the estimated trade-balance coefficient is positive (β = 0.00250, p = 0.376), the inflation coefficient is negative (β = −0.37182, p = 0.130), and the FDI coefficient is positive (β = 0.00398, p = 0.056); none is significant at the 5% level. These estimates should be interpreted as associations, not causal effects. The contribution is a transparent re-evaluation of provincial correlations that explicitly accounts for unobserved province and common quarterly factors. Crucially, the original official-source provenance, units, provincial mapping, and treatment of negative values have not been established and must be verified before publication.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JRAT

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Terpadu (JRAT) is a scientific journal published by the Accounting Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa. Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Terpadu (JRAT) is published twice a year, (April and October). First issue is Volume 1 Number 1, April ...