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All Journal Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Terpadu
Norliza Che Yahya
Universiti Teknologi MARA
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Balance, and Inflation as Drivers of Provincial Economic Growth in Indonesia Enny Susilowati Mardjono; Juli Ratnawati; Dian Indriana Hapsari; Norliza Che Yahya
Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Terpadu Vol 19, No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35448/jrat.v19i1.43423

Abstract

This study examines contemporaneous associations between trade balance, inflation, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth in a balanced panel of 34 Indonesian provincial codes observed over nine quarters (2021Q1–2023Q1; N = 306). The supplied workbook is analyzed using pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), province fixed effects, and two-way province-and-quarter fixed effects; inference for the latter uses province-clustered standard errors. Relative to pooled OLS (adjusted R² = 0.092), the two-way fixed-effects specification explains substantially more sample variation (adjusted R² = 0.472). In that specification, the estimated trade-balance coefficient is positive (β = 0.00250, p = 0.376), the inflation coefficient is negative (β = −0.37182, p = 0.130), and the FDI coefficient is positive (β = 0.00398, p = 0.056); none is significant at the 5% level. These estimates should be interpreted as associations, not causal effects. The contribution is a transparent re-evaluation of provincial correlations that explicitly accounts for unobserved province and common quarterly factors. Crucially, the original official-source provenance, units, provincial mapping, and treatment of negative values have not been established and must be verified before publication.
Co-Authors Dian Indriana Hapsari Enny Susilowati Mardjono Juli Ratnawati