Jurnal ULTIMATICS
Vol 8 No 2 (2016): Ultimatics: Jurnal Ilmu Teknik Informatika

Forecasting Motorcycle Sales Using Nearest Symmetric Trapezoidal Fuzzy Number

Jessica Jessica (Unknown)
Seng Hansun (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
03 Oct 2016

Abstract

A business activity aimed at obtaining forecasting as an initial step in planning activities helps provide an overview of sales in a business for the coming period based on data available. This research aims to design and develop a motorcycle sales forecasting application using Fuzzy Time Series with Nearest Symmetric Trapezoidal Fuzzy Number approach to predict the next period sales of PT Mutiara Motor. To test the accuracy of the method used in application, we used the MSE and MAPE criteria. Based on the results of three experiments taken: (1) monthly ‘All Category’-’All Type’ with MSE = 54.42 and MAPE = 4.28%, (2) monthly ‘Beat CW Fuel Injection’ with MSE = 3.67 and MAPE = 4.04%, and (3) daily ‘All Category’- ’All Type’ with MSE = 1.42 and MAPE = 27.36% we indicate that Fuzzy Time Series with Nearest Symmetric Trapezoidal Fuzzy Number approach could give higher accuracy than the Single Exponential Smoothing method as comparison in forecasting motorcycle sales. Index Terms—fuzzy time series, nearest symmetric trapezoidal fuzzy number, sales forecasting

Copyrights © 2016






Journal Info

Abbrev

TI

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering

Description

Jurnal ULTIMATICS merupakan Jurnal Program Studi Teknik Informatika Universitas Multimedia Nusantara yang menyajikan artikel-artikel penelitian ilmiah dalam bidang analisis dan desain sistem, programming, algoritma, rekayasa perangkat lunak, serta isu-isu teoritis dan praktis yang terkini, mencakup ...