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INDONESIA
Faktor Exacta
Published by Universitas Indraprasta PGRI
ISSN : 1979276X     EISSN : 2502339X     DOI : -
Core Subject : Science, Engineering,
Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering
Faktor Exacta is a peer review journal in the field of informatics. This journal was published in March (March, June, September, December) by Institute for Research and Community Service, University of Indraprasta PGRI, Indonesia. All newspapers will be read blind. Accepted papers will be available online (free access) and print version.
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Articles 11 Documents
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Search results for , issue "Vol 17, No 2 (2024)" : 11 Documents clear
Komparasi Metode Grey GM (1.1) Dan Grey Verhulst Untuk Prediksi Harga Sembako Zahro, Diah Ayu Fatimatus; Muqtadir, Asfan; Suryanto, Andik Adi
Faktor Exacta Vol 17, No 2 (2024)
Publisher : LPPM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30998/faktorexacta.v17i2.22408

Abstract

This research explores the significance of basic commodities (sembako), such as rice and sugar, as essential necessities, with a focus on price fluctuations influenced by factors like seasonal variations and weather conditions. The pressing issue of rising food demand amid Indonesia's population growth is exacerbated by price fluctuations. The study utilizes grey forecasting method, specifically GM (1.1) and grey Verhulst, to predict the prices of basic commodities in East Java. The comparative results indicate that grey Verhulst excels in forecasting the prices of certain commodities, such as Premium Rice, while GM (1.1) proves more effective for the sugar category. This finding comes from an analysis of the ARPE value that shows the accuracy of the model in the price prediction. The research aims to contribute to addressing the challenges of price changes and instability in basic commodity prices influenced by seasonal factors. The lowest error rate for grey Verhulst is 1.9471% for premium rice, with the highest at 64.535% for sugar. For GM (1.1), the lowest error rate is 2.184% for medium rice, and the highest is 6.633% for premium rice.

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