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INDONESIA
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara
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Articles 5 Documents
Search results for , issue "Vol 2, No.2 Juni (2005)" : 5 Documents clear
IDENTIFIKASI MODEL FLUKTUASI INDEKS K HARIAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARIMA (2.0.1) - Habirun
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 2, No.2 Juni (2005)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

The geomagnetic level called geomagnetic index. Based on the latitude, geomagnetic index for high to intermediate latitude is Kp index and for equator area is Dst index. For a certain location it is called local geomagnetic index, K index. Flunctuation of geomagnetic index is one of information that describes condition of space weather. Based on the above condition, this paper discusses identification of daily K index flunctuation model using Auto Regression Integrated Moving Average-ARIMA (2.0.1), 2, 0, and 1 order. Using observation data 1 order. Using observation data and reconstruction of four days data, it is found ARIMA (2.0.1) model 2, 0, and 1 order. Both model are validated, calculating errors and pattern correlation. Model validation result using observational data, showed the error of 2.18 and the pattern correlation of 0,99940. Model validation using reconstruction data, showed the error of 0.3582 and the pattern corelation of 0.9988.
THE POSSIBILITY OF UTILIZATION OF THE EQUATORIAL ATMOSPHERE RADAR (EAR) ON STUDY THE EFFECT OF GRAVITY WAVES ON A CORRUGATED STRUCTURE OF REFLECTION SURFACE Eddy Hermawan
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 2, No.2 Juni (2005)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

We have introduced a new Aquatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR), a collaboration project between Research Institude for Sustainable Humanosphere (RISH), Kyoto University, Japan and the Indonesian Natioanal Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN) at Kototabang, Bukittinggi, West Sumatera. This radar is mainly concerned to observe winds and turbulence in the troposphere and lower stratosphere with a good time the EAR are still developing. In this paper, one possibility an application of EAR on study effects of gravity waves on a corrugated surface is discussed. For the referance, we investigated the azimuth angle variations of clear air echoes in the troposphere and lower stratosphere by using the MU (Middle and Upper Atmosphere) radar in Shigaraki, Japan (34˚51’N; 136˚06’E). We used a data set collected on November 4-5, 1986 by steering the antenna beam into 12 oblique positions at the same zineth angle of 6˚ and the azimuth angle being changed every 30˚. We have detected considerable amplitudes in the azimuth angle variations of echo power, which was continuous along altitude. We also found time evolution of the azimuth angle variations of echo power. The observed azimuth angle variations of echo power suggest that the reflection surface is affected by propagating gravity wave. As a preminary result, we present characteristics of zonal and meridional wind velocity observed with EAR on May 24-25, 2001 over Kototabang after observations of the variations of meridional wind velocity from September to December 2001 as one of the most important parameter needed to explain the mechanism of gravity waves is also discussed.
DAMPAK VARIABILITAS IKLIM TERHADAP PRODUKSI PANGAN DI SUMATERA Sinta Berliana Sipayung
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 2, No.2 Juni (2005)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

Food security will become unstable if extreme climate occurred frequently, such as dry and rainy season more than normal condition. This condition will have positive and negative effects, especially on agriculture sector. In this study, effect of climate variability on agriculture production over Sumatera Island for ten years (1991-2000) observation will be discussed. The result show that part of Sumatera Island has more surplus than deficit, so it has more planting season in one year. We suspect that El-Nino event has more effect than La-Nina event in decending crop agriculture productivity at Sumatera Island who has Monsoon raifall pattern.
METODE BARU PRAKIRAAN SIKLUS AKTIVITAS MATAHARI DARI ANALISIS PERIODISITAS Thomas Djamuluddin
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 2, No.2 Juni (2005)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

Periodicity analysis indicates that sunspot number is better to be used as the base of solar activities prediction. The main periodicity (of about 11 years) is relatively constant so thatit can be used in long-term prediction several cycles ahead. For prediction, wavelet analysis of all domonant periode has to be done on any cycle to be used in reconstructing the cycle pattern and for predicting the next ones. The relationship between length of cycle and maximum amplitude is used to predict the peak of a cycle. Prediction tests of several cycles indicate that this new method is accurate enough in predicting cycle pattern and maximum amplitude several cycles ahead. The ability in predicting several cycles ahead may be the superiority of this method over the precursor method considered to be relatively the most accurate nowadays.
IDENTIFIKASI FLUKS MAGNETIK DARI GERAK PASANGAN BINTIK BIPOLAR Clara Y. Yatini
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 2, No.2 Juni (2005)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

Proper motion of a pair of bipolar spots is analyzed using TRACE white light data to find their relation with the emerging flux. These spots were located under flaring region of NOAA 0424, which ejected an M1.7/S N flare on August 5, 2003. As the result, it is found that the preceding moved westward of the following. We interpret this as the indicator of emerging magnetic flux triggering flare.

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