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Economics and Finance in Indonesia
Published by Universitas Indonesia
ISSN : 0126155X     EISSN : 24429260     DOI : 10.47291
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
EFI mainly covers original idea related to the Economics and Finance in Indonesia. Published articles can be either theoretical, empirical, or in between of those two polar variants.
Arjuna Subject : -
Articles 5 Documents
 1 
Search results for , issue "Volume 62, Number 2, August 2016" : 5 Documents clear
Portfolio Flows into Indonesia: Push or Pull? Chaikal Nuryakin; Edith Zheng Wen Yuan; I Gede Putra Arsana
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 62, Number 2, August 2016
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (162.126 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v62i2.550

Abstract

This paper focuses on the dynamic of the portfolio flows into Indonesia. The result of Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model reveals that push factors is more dominant than pull factors in explaining portfolio flows into Indonesia. Portfolio flows into Indonesia are positively correlated with regional’s stock market performance and negatively correlated to the federal funds rate. On the pull factors, domestic risk (the Credit Default Swap spread) is more dominant than domestic return (the BI rate) in explaining the flows. Thus, it is important for authorities to have more focus on domestic risk–relative to rate of return–in managing portfolio flows. In addition, the negative impact of the lagged Indonesia stock market index to the capital flows indicates a counter cyclical investment behavior of global investors. AbstrakStudi ini mengkaji dinamika arus investasi portofolio Indonesia. Hasil dari model Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) menunjukkan bahwa "faktor pendorong" lebih dominan dibandingkan "faktor penarik" dalam menjelaskan pergerakan arus investasi portofolio. Arus investasi portofolio ini berkorelasi positif dengan kinerja pasar saham regional dan berkorelasi negatif dengan tingkat suku bunga the Fed. Untuk faktor penarik, risiko domestik (CDS) menjadi faktor yang dominan dibandingkan imbal hasil (BI rate) yang menguatkan pentingnya manajemen risiko perekonomian domestik dalam stabilisasi arus investasi portofolio. Lebih lanjut, studi ini juga mengindikasikan adanya perilaku kontra siklikal dari investor global.Kata kunci: Arus Investasi Portofolio; SVARJEL classifications: F32; G11
The Existence of Long-Run PPP: A Comparison between Developed and Developing Countries Sulistiadi Dono Iskandar
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 62, Number 2, August 2016
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (173.293 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v62i2.551

Abstract

McNown & Wallace (1989) argued that PPP will tend to holds in less developed countries due to the domination of nominal factors in the economy. In this study we try to investigate the existence of long-run PPP in eight countries consisting four developed and developing countries. Here we show that there is a strong evidence that long-run PPP holds for Germany, United Kingdom, and Chile. Furthermore, the additional tests also show that symmetry and proportionality conditions seem to hold in the three economies. As for other five economies, long-run PPP seems to be absence. Although one step general Error Correction Model and Johansen-Juselius cointegration procedure generates conflicting result, the result of both technique do not show a tendency for PPP to hold in developing countries thus rejecting argument proposed by McNown and Wallace. AbstrakMcNown & Wallace (1989) mengemukakan argumen bahwa PPP akan cenderung berlaku di negara-negara yang belum maju disebabkan adanya dominasi faktor nominal dalam perekonomian. Dalam penelitian ini kami mencoba untuk menyelidiki keberadaan dari long-run PPP di delapan negara yang terdiri dari empat negara maju dan berkembang. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan adanya bukti kuat bahwa long-run PPP berlaku pada Jerman, Inggris, dan Cile. Hasil, tes lanjutan juga menunjukkan bahwa kondisi simetri dan proporsionalitas nampak bertahan di tiga negara tersebut. Sedangkan untuk lima negara lainnya, long-run PPP tidak nampak keberadaannya. Meskipun hasil pada one step Error Correction Model (ECM) dan Johansen-Juselius cointegration procedure menghasilkan hasil yang bertentangan, namun hasil dari kedua metode tersebut konsisten tidak menunjukkan kecenderungan akan eksistensi PPP di negara berkembang.Kata kunci: Purchasing Power Parity; Tes Kointegrasi; Negara Berkembang; Negara MajuJEL classifications: F31; F4
Is Inflation Target Announced by Bank Indonesia the Most Accurate Inflation Forecast? Faisal Rachman
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 62, Number 2, August 2016
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (493.344 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v62i2.539

Abstract

This article investigates whether following Bank Indonesia’s explicit inflation targets (forward-looking) is a more accurate method of predicting inflation rate in Indonesia than forecast methods utilizing past information of macroeconomic data (backward-looking). The analysis is conducted by performing naive, univariate, and multivariate time-series models with an out-of-sample forecast evaluation period of January 2014–December 2016. It is found that the backward-looking approach outperforms the forward-looking approach at all forecast horizons, indicating that Bank Indonesia still does not succeed to anchor inflation expectation towards the desired level.AbstrakArtikel ini mencoba untuk meneliti apakah mengikuti target inflasi yang dikeluarkan oleh Bank Indonesia (forward-looking) adalah metode yang lebih akurat untuk memprediksi tingkat inflasi suatu periode tertentu di Indonesia ketimbang metode peramalan inflasi dengan menggunakan data informasi makroekonomi lampau (backward-looking). Analisa dilakukan dengan membandingkan model runtun waktu naif, satu peubah, dan peubah ganda dengan periode Januari 2014–Desember 2016 digunakan sebagai periode evaluasi sampel peramalan. Tulisan ini menyimpulkan bahwa performa peramalan metode backward-looking lebih unggul dari pada metode forward-looking untuk setiap jangka waktu peramalan yang mengindikasikan bahwa Bank Indonesia masih belum berhasil dalam mengendalikan ekspektasi publik terhadap inflasi ketingkat yang diinginkan.Kata kunci: Inflasi; Forward-Looking; Backward-Looking; ARMA; VARJEL classifications: C22; C32; E31; E37; E52
Lowering Regional Inflation? Improve Budget Absorption Vid Adrison; Masarina Flukeria
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 62, Number 2, August 2016
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (199.147 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v62i2.531

Abstract

The subnational government spending in Indonesia exhibit a highly skewed distribution, i.e., it is very low in the first two-quarters and then increases significantly in the last two-quarters. Such explosive pattern poses two disadvantages. First, the regional output will fall below its optimal level as the low government capital expenditure leads to a fewer provision of public goods. Second, a significant increase in government spending in the later quarter pushes the short run aggregate demand to the northeast and creates an inflationary pressure in the following quarters. In this study, we analyze the effect of quarterly regional government expenditure growth on regional inflation during 2010–2014. Using Arellano Bond GMM estimation, we find government expenditure growth leads to higher inflation in the same quarter. A percentage increase in non-capital expenditure spending results in a higher inflation than a percentage increase in capital spending.AbstrakPengeluaran pemerintah daerah di Indonesia menunjukkan distribusi yang sangat timpang, yaitu sangat rendah pada dua kuartal pertama dan kemudian meningkat secara significant pada dua kuartal terakhir. Pola eksplosif tersebut menimbulkan dua kerugian. Pertama, output regional akan berada di bawah tingkat yang optimal karena pengeluaran pembangunan (belanja kapital) pemerintah yang rendah akan mengakibatkan rendahnya barang publik yang tersedia. Kedua, peningkatan belanja pemerintah pada kuartal terakhir akan mengakibatkan kenaikan permintaan agregat dan mengakibatkan tekanan inflasi pada kuartal berikutnya. Dalam studi ini, kami menganalisa dampak dari pertumbuhan pengeluaran pemerintah daerah di Indonesia terhadap inflasi daerah periode 2010–2014. Dengan menggunakan estimasi GMM Arellano Bond, kami menemukan pertumbuhan pengeluaran pemerintah daerah akan mengakibatkan inflasi daerah pada kuartal yang sama. Satu persen peningkatan belanja non-kapital mengakibatkan inflasi yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan satu persen peningkatan belanja kapital.Kata kunci: Belanja Kapital; Belanja Non-Kapital; Inflasi Daerah; Pemerintah DaerahJEL classifications: E31; H72
Indebtedness and Subjective Financial Wellbeing of Households in Indonesia Dwini Handayani; Ummu Salamah; Restananda Nabilla Yusacc
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 62, Number 2, August 2016
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (511.165 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v62i2.549

Abstract

Indebtedness is an element to foresee household financial wellbeing. This vulnerability could be determined objectively and subjectively. Objective financial vulnerability is the objective ability to make ends meet that is analyzed using household income and characteristics. Measurement in subjective welbeing is determined by household perceptions in their ability to make ends meet. Household behavior with different perceptions will behave differently. Indebtedness is analyzed using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 5 with the Ordinary Least Square method. The inferential shows that both objective and subjective financial wellbeing influence household indebtedness. AbstrakKedalaman hutang merupakan elemen untuk mengetahui kesejahteraan finansial rumah tangga. Kerentanan ini dapat dilihat secara objektif maupun subjektif. Kerentanan finansial objektif adalah kemampuan objektif dalam memenuhi kebutuhan sehari-hari menggunakan pendapatan rumah tangga dan karakteristiknya. Ukuran dari kesejahteraan subjektif ditentukan oleh persepsi rumah tangga dalam kemampuannya untuk memenuhi kebutuhan sehari-hari. Rumah tangga dengan persepsi berbeda akan memiliki perilaku yang berbeda pula. Kedalaman rumah tangga dianalisis menggunakan Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 5 dengan metode Ordinary Least Square. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa, baik kesejahteraan rumah tangga objektif maupun kesejahteraan rumah tangga subjektif memengaruhi kedalaman hutang rumah tangga.Kata kunci: Perilaku Rumah Tangga; Ekonomi Keluarga; Kedalaman Rumah Tangga; Kesejahteraan SubjektifJEL classifications: D10; D31

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