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Eksponensial
Published by Universitas Mulawarman
ISSN : 20857829     EISSN : 27983455     DOI : https://doi.org/10.30872/
Core Subject : Economy, Science, Education,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Other
Jurnal Eksponensial is a scientific journal that publishes articles of statistics and its application. This journal This journal is intended for researchers and readers who are interested of statistics and its applications.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 11 Documents
 1   2 
Search results for , issue "Vol 10 No 2 (2019)" : 11 Documents clear
Peramalan Harga Minyak Mentah Menggunakan Model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Neural Network (ARIMA-NN) Laila Nur Qamara; Sri Wahyuningsih; Fidia Deny Tisna Amijaya
EKSPONENSIAL Vol 10 No 2 (2019): Jurnal Eksponensial
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (647.856 KB)

Abstract

Crude oil prices can affect the production and consumption of a country. Crude oil prices are set every month and semester by Indonesian Crude Oil Price(ICP). Bontang Return Condensate (BRC) is one of crude oil type in Indonesia. Forecasting is an expectation of a request or thing that will come based on several forecasting variables.In this study, data was used in July 2010-December 2017. The purpose of this study was to determine the best model of Indonesian crude oil price data for the BRC type and the forecasting results. The model used in this study is the ARIMA-NN model which is a combination of ARIMA model and Neural Network (NN) model. The best ARIMA-NN model has ARIMA (2,1,0) and NN components with 2 inputs and 2 neurons in the hidden layer. The NN model is a Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) model with backpropagation algorithm. The results of the forecasting of the BRC Indonesia crude oil price for January-December 2018 are around the value of 60 USD / Barrel.

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