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Meiliyani Siringoringo
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Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Mulawarman Jl. Barong Tongkok, Kampus Gunung Kelua Kota Samarinda, Provinsi Kalimantan Timur 75123
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INDONESIA
Eksponensial
Published by Universitas Mulawarman
ISSN : 20857829     EISSN : 27983455     DOI : https://doi.org/10.30872/
Core Subject : Economy, Science, Education,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Other
Jurnal Eksponensial is a scientific journal that publishes articles of statistics and its application. This journal This journal is intended for researchers and readers who are interested of statistics and its applications.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 12 Documents
 1   2 
Search results for , issue "Vol 8 No 1 (2017)" : 12 Documents clear
Pemodelan Geographically Weighted Regression (Gwr) Dengan Fungsi Pembobot Adaptive Kernel Bisquare Untuk Angka Kesakitan Demam Berdarah di Kalimantan Timur Tahun 2015 Aditiya Risky Tizona; Rito Goejantoro; Wasono Wasono
EKSPONENSIAL Vol 8 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (162.78 KB)

Abstract

Dengue Fever in East Borneo is thought to be a spatial problem that affected by geographic factor and linear regression analysis that is often can not describe with Good Relations pattern. The solution for this problem can be solved using Geographic Weighted Regression Method (GWR) to review and Troubleshooting geographic factor. This research Model proposed to consider GWR model with geography factor or location as the weight to estimate the model parameters, the weight type that used for this research is Adaptive Bisquare. Based on the analysis, this research revealed different model to every observations and different indicators. The eight locations are Paser, Kutai Kartanegara, West Kutai, East Kutai, Berau, Balikpapan, Samarinda dan Bontang. Those locations have variable that affected the morbidity number of dengue fever equally specifically house, elementary school facilities and public place that do not meet the requirements of health, and also waste transported while for the observation location of Penajam Paser Utara has the affected variable of dengue fever morbidity number equally which are house, waste transported, elementary school facilities and public place that do not meet the requirements of health, and also the citizen that do not have the healthy and hygienic lifestyle pattern.
Peramalan dengan Metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) di Bidang Ekonomi Verawaty Bettyani Sitorus; Sri Wahyuningsih; Memi Nor Hayati
EKSPONENSIAL Vol 8 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (429.049 KB)

Abstract

A present event is probably a reiteration from a past event. The reiteration of an event every particular time period indicates seasonal pattern. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) is one of the methods that is used for data forecasting which has seasonal pattern. The purposes of this research are finding out the best SARIMA model and forecasting the inflation in Indonesia for period January 2016 until December 2016 using the best SARIMA model. Sample of this research is 96 Indonesia inflation data (mtm) for period January 2008 until December 2015. The technique of this research is purposive sampling. There are five steps of SARIMA method, those are model identification, model estimating, diagnostic checking, selecting the best model, and forecasting. Based on the analysis, the best SARIMA model is SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,0)12. The forecasting of Indonesia inflation 2016 has similar pattern with the previous time. The inflation increases in January 2016 and decreases in February 2016 until April 2016. The inflation increases again in Mey 2016 until August 2016 and decreases in September 2016 until November 2016. At last, the inflation increases in December 2016.

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