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Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Published by Lembaga Yasin Alsys
ISSN : 30308399     EISSN : 3030816X     DOI : https://doi.org/10.58578/mjms
Core Subject : Education, Engineering,
Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering
The journal contains scientific articles covering topics such as mathematical theory, statistical methods, the application of mathematics in various disciplines, and statistical data analysis. The primary objective of this journal is to promote a better understanding of mathematical and statistical concepts and to encourage advancements in the methods and applications of mathematics and statistics in various contexts. The journal serves as a platform for researchers, academics, and practitioners to share knowledge and the latest research findings in the fields of mathematics and statistics. MJMS publishes three editions a year in February, June, and October.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Matematika (Lain-Lain)
Articles 100 Documents
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Some Entropies Derivation for Entropy Transformed Exponential Distribution with Application to Health Data H. A., Tugga; I. J.,, David; O. D., Adubisi
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i2.9197

Abstract

This study aims to estimate and comparatively evaluate the performance of four entropy measures—Havrda–Charvat, Kapur, Verma, and Mathai–Haubold—in modeling newborn weight. A quantitative approach was adopted through analytical derivations and Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The performance of each entropy measure was assessed across varying sample sizes using bias, mean squared error (MSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE) as evaluation criteria. The findings indicate that the Havrda–Charvat entropy measure demonstrates superior accuracy, consistency, and convergence toward the true entropy values, thereby exhibiting robust performance under the entropy-transformed exponential distribution (ETED). These results contribute to the theoretical development of entropy-based modeling by extending current understanding of estimator performance within ETED and providing comparative evidence on the suitability of alternative entropy measures for newborn weight modeling.
Enhancing Volatility Forecasting in the Nigerian Stock Exchange: Evaluating GARCH-Type Models and Innovation Densities Oboh, Samuel Ohiorhenuan; Alayande, Semiu Ayinla; Olatunde, Faith Oluwadamilola
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i2.9210

Abstract

Although volatility modeling in emerging stock markets has received increasing attention, limited research has jointly compared GARCH-type model structures under alternative symmetric and skewed innovation densities in the Nigerian capital market. This study aims to evaluate the forecasting performance of selected GARCH-type models under alternative innovation densities using daily returns of the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE-ASI) from February 2012 to July 2023. A quantitative econometric time-series design was employed, involving 2,820 daily observations selected through purposive sampling based on data availability. Data were obtained from the official market database and analyzed using Maximum Likelihood Estimation, model selection criteria comprising Log-Likelihood (LL), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and forecast accuracy measures including Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The findings indicate that the APARCH(1,1)-GED model provides the best in-sample fit, whereas the APARCH(1,1)-SGED specification produces the most accurate out-of-sample forecasts. These results demonstrate the importance of innovation density selection in capturing asymmetry and fat-tailed behavior in stock return volatility. The study concludes that incorporating skewed heavy-tailed distributions enhances volatility forecasting accuracy in the Nigerian capital market. The findings contribute to the theoretical development of conditional heteroskedasticity modeling and offer practical implications for risk management, portfolio analysis, and regulatory forecasting in emerging markets. Future research may extend this work by examining advanced nonlinear and regime-switching volatility models across broader emerging market contexts.
Utilizing Permutation and Combination Techniques in Business Decision-Making Processes Sah, Bardan; Jayswal, Ritika; Thakur, Satyam; Shah, Neha; Sah, Dilip Kumar; Sahani, Suresh Kumar
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i2.9336

Abstract

Although permutations and combinations are often regarded as purely theoretical mathematical topics, they play a significant role in practical decision-making and contemporary business operations. This study examines the application of permutations and combinations in everyday decision-making and real business contexts, particularly in quality control, marketing strategy, resource planning, and inventory management. Using real-world examples and case studies, the article demonstrates how organizations employ these combinatorial concepts to improve productivity, reduce costs, optimize available resources, and strengthen competitive advantage in increasingly complex market environments. The findings indicate that a sound understanding of permutations and combinations enhances managerial and executive decision-making, especially when evaluating numerous alternatives, assessing the likelihood of possible outcomes, selecting appropriate combinations of people or products, and determining optimal configurations. The study concludes that permutations and combinations are not merely academic concepts but practical analytical tools that support more effective and strategic business decisions. This study contributes to a broader understanding of how foundational mathematical reasoning can be applied to improve organizational efficiency and decision quality in business practice.
Robust Integral Transform Methods for the Solution of Nonlinear Fractional Ordinary Differential Equations in Viscoelastic and Biological Systems Umar Mujahid Aliyu; David Opeoluwa Oyewola; Joel John Taura; Salisu Lukunti; Hassan Muhammad; Abubakar Yahya Adamu; Abdulhalim Isah Ibrahim; Mubarak Muhammad; Imafidor Hassan Ibrahim; Mohammed Abubakar Kolo; Isah Adamu; Wallen Juliet Piapna'an; Mustapha Mohammed Mansur; Ibrahim Abubakar Adamu; Mohammed Yusuf Marafa; Abdulwasiu Umar; Sulaiman Ahmad; Nura Hashim
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i2.9237

Abstract

Nonlinear and fractional-order differential equations frequently arise in viscoelastic and biological systems; however, their solution remains challenging due to the presence of nonlocal operators, memory effects, and complex boundary conditions. Classical integral transforms, including the Laplace and Fourier transforms, often have limitations in addressing these features effectively. This study presents a robust hybrid methodology that combines the Mahgoub Transform with the Variational Iteration Method (VIM) to solve nonlinear and fractional-order ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The proposed approach was systematically applied to linear, nonlinear, and fractional-order ODEs to evaluate its convergence, accuracy, and capacity to handle memory-dependent effects. The findings demonstrate that the Mahgoub–VIM method achieves rapid convergence, high accuracy, and improved performance compared with traditional transforms such as the Sumudu Transform. These results indicate that the proposed method provides a reliable and efficient analytical framework for modeling complex viscoelastic and biological phenomena governed by nonlinear and fractional-order dynamics. This study contributes to the advancement of integral transform-based solution methods and offers practical implications for the mathematical modeling of systems characterized by memory-dependent behavior and nonlinear responses.
Effect of Credit Management on the Financial Performance of Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria Adebayo Abiodun Oluwafemi; Adeusi Stephen Oluwafemi Oluwafemi; Ayorinde Babatunde Femi
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i2.9315

Abstract

This study investigated the effect of credit management on the financial performance of deposit money banks in Nigeria over a 25-year period from 2000 to 2024. Credit management was proxied by the non-performing loan ratio, loan-to-deposit ratio, and capital adequacy ratio, while bank performance was measured using return on equity (ROE). The study used secondary data and employed the Johansen cointegration technique to examine the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The results indicate the presence of one cointegrating equation at the 5% significance level, confirming a long-run equilibrium relationship. An error correction model (ECM) was subsequently estimated to capture short-run dynamics and long-run adjustment. The ECM results reveal a statistically significant and correctly signed error correction term, indicating that approximately 1.13% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected annually. Furthermore, the findings show that credit risk management variables exert negative but statistically insignificant effects on ROE. Despite the individual insignificance of the explanatory variables, the overall model is statistically significant and free from serial autocorrelation. The study concludes that credit management indicators exert a weak influence on the profitability of deposit money banks in Nigeria. These findings contribute to banking and financial performance literature by providing empirical evidence on the limited explanatory role of selected credit management indicators in determining profitability and offer practical implications for bank managers and regulators in strengthening credit risk assessment, loan portfolio quality, and capital management practices.
Analysis of the Hydromagnetic Free Convective System in the Presence of Suction/Injection Umar Muhammad Dauda; Mohammed Umar Mohammed
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i2.9341

Abstract

This study examines the dynamics of fluid flow and heat transfer under impulsive and accelerated motion conditions in non-steady free convective flow systems. It aims to derive and analyze velocity and temperature profiles under the influence of key physical parameters, including the suction/injection parameter, Grashof number, and Prandtl number. A hybrid analytical–numerical method was employed, integrating Laplace transform-based analytical procedures with numerical evaluation techniques. Two cases of non-steady free convective flow, namely impulsive motion and accelerated motion, were considered. Talbot’s method for the inverse Laplace transform was applied in the accelerated motion case to further evaluate the temperature and velocity profiles. The findings show that the suction/injection parameter, Grashof number, and Prandtl number substantially influence both the velocity field and thermal field, thereby shaping the behavior of fluid flow and heat transfer under non-steady convective conditions. This study concludes that the hybrid analytical–numerical approach provides an effective framework for examining transient convective flow problems involving impulsive and accelerated motions. The findings contribute to the literature on fluid mechanics and heat transfer by offering analytical and computational insights relevant to engineering and thermal science applications.
Non-Sinusoidal Predictive Model of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in Nigerian Fuel Price Hike Akpienbi I. O.; Bello M.I.; Atureta M.S.; Barde A.
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i2.9367

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamics of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices in Nigeria using a non-sinusoidal high-order mathematical model applied to annual data spanning 1990–2022. The proposed modelling framework is designed to represent long-term price growth behaviour and structural progression rather than periodic or cyclical movements. Model parameters were estimated using the least squares estimation technique to ensure optimal fitting of the observed price series. The adequacy of the model was evaluated through validation error metrics and correlation analysis, providing quantitative measures of goodness-of-fit and predictive reliability. The findings indicate that the non-sinusoidal high-order model effectively represents the sustained upward trajectory of PMS prices over the study period, reflecting gradual economic adjustments, inflationary pressures, and long-term policy influences. However, deviations between observed and model-generated prices were evident during periods characterized by abrupt policy interventions, subsidy reforms, and regulatory shocks, which introduced short-term irregularities into the price structure. Despite these disturbances, the model maintained a strong capacity to describe the overall price evolution and underlying trend of PMS pricing in Nigeria. This study contributes to energy price modelling literature by demonstrating the relevance of non-sinusoidal growth-based approaches for analysing long-term energy price behaviour in regulated and policy-sensitive economic environments.
Statistical Time Series Analysis on Malaria Cases among Children (0-5 Years) in Damaturu Town (A Case Study of Primary Health Care Centers, Damaturu, Yobe State, Nigeria) Shuaibu Ibrahim Bulama; Chiwa Musa Dalah
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i2.10321

Abstract

This study applied statistical time series analysis to examine malaria cases among children aged 0–5 years in Primary Health Care (PHC) centers in Damaturu, Yobe State, using monthly data from 2017 to 2024. The study aimed to describe malaria patterns, examine long-term trends, identify seasonal components, fit an appropriate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, and forecast future malaria incidence. Descriptive analysis showed a sharp increase in cases from 3,503 in 2017 to 25,412 in 2024, with a total of 109,101 cases recorded during the study period. Seasonal decomposition revealed consistent peaks during the rainy months of August to October, with October recording the highest transmission levels. Stationarity was confirmed using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test (p = 0.01). Model identification based on ACF, PACF, AIC, and BIC criteria selected SARIMA(2,0,0)(0,1,1)[12] with drift as the best-fitting model. Forecasts for 2025–2026 indicated continued increases in malaria incidence, with projected peaks exceeding 3,700 and 3,900 cases, respectively. The findings confirm a significant upward trend and strong seasonal variation in malaria incidence among children under five in Damaturu. This study concludes that malaria remains a persistent and increasing public health challenge in the study area. The findings contribute to public health surveillance and epidemiological forecasting by demonstrating the value of SARIMA-based modelling for anticipating seasonal malaria burden. Practical implications include the need to strengthen seasonal interventions, improve surveillance, enhance resource allocation, and adopt predictive modelling for timely malaria control. Future research should incorporate climatic and socio-behavioral variables to improve forecast accuracy.
Time Series Analysis on Infant Mortality Rates (A Case Study of Yobe State Specialist Hospital Geidam, 2014 - 2024) Mustapha Abdullahi; Chiwa Musa Dalah
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i2.10322

Abstract

This study examined the pattern and trend of infant mortality rates at Yobe State Specialist Hospital, Geidam, using retrospective secondary data from 2014 to 2024. The study aimed to analyze infant mortality patterns and forecast future trends using time series techniques. A quantitative retrospective design was adopted, and the data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and time series models, including moving averages and exponential smoothing, to identify trends, seasonal fluctuations, and forecast patterns within the study period. The findings revealed that infant mortality rates fluctuated across the years, showing both seasonal and irregular variations, with a slight downward trend toward the later years. The results suggest that improved maternal care, immunization programs, and increased public health awareness may have contributed to this decline. Forecast results indicate a gradual but continuous reduction in infant mortality if current health interventions are sustained and strengthened. The study concludes that time series analysis provides an effective framework for understanding the dynamics of infant mortality and supporting evidence-based policy decisions aimed at reducing infant deaths. The findings contribute to public health monitoring and forecasting by demonstrating the usefulness of time series techniques in assessing infant mortality trends. Practical implications include the need for state and local governments, through the Ministry of Health, to strengthen maternal and child health programs, with support from international organizations such as WHO and UNICEF.
Actualization of Obstacles in the Implementation of Baitul Mal Wat Tamwil (BMT) in Micro-Enterprise Capital Financing Nur Indah; Muhammad Achyar Hamid; Rahmatullah Rahmatullah
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i2.10668

Abstract

Institutions that collect and distribute financing play a strategic role as funding pillars for micro-entrepreneurs, particularly for communities requiring business development support through accessible requirements and financing schemes that avoid excessive interest burdens. In the context of an expanding Muslim market segment, cooperatives and BMT represent microfinance institutions whose values are closely related to the ethical foundations of the Islamic economic system, which are derived primarily from the Qur’an and Sunnah and supported by ijma, qiyas, and other secondary sources of Islamic jurisprudence. This study aimed to examine the duties and functions of cooperatives and BMT in order to clarify their institutional roles and ensure that each operates in accordance with its respective principles. This study employed library research by reviewing written sources, including scientific journals, reference books, literature, encyclopedias, academic articles, scholarly works, and other relevant sources related to cooperatives, BMT, Islamic economics, and community-based economic development. The findings indicate that cooperatives and BMT both serve as important instruments for strengthening community finance, supporting micro-entrepreneurs, and advancing MSME development, yet they differ in institutional orientation, operational principles, and ethical foundations. The study concludes that a clear understanding of the distinct functions of cooperatives and BMT is essential to prevent overlapping roles and to optimize their contribution to economic development. These findings contribute to the literature on Islamic microfinance and people-centered economic systems, while offering practical implications for policymakers, cooperative managers, BMT administrators, and community economic actors in strengthening inclusive and ethically grounded financing institutions in Indonesia.

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