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Economic Journal of Emerging Markets
Published by Universitas Islam Indonesia
ISSN : 20863128     EISSN : 2502180x     DOI : -
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
The Economic Journal of Emerging Markets (EJEM) is a peer-reviewed journal which provides a forum for scientific works pertaining to emerging market economies. Published every April and October, this journal welcomes original research papers on all aspects of economic development issues. The journal is fully open access for scholarly readers.
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Articles 589 Documents
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Trade liberalization, financial development, and economic growth: A panel data analysis on Turkey and the Turkic Republics Mustafa Batuhan Tufaner
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 14 Issue 1, 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art10

Abstract

Purpose ― In this study, 5 Turkic Republics (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) and Turkey are analysed to investigate the impact of trade liberalisation and financial development on economic growth. Methods ― In this study, long-term relationships among trade liberalisation, financial development, and economic growth are analysed by applying unit root, cointegration and causality tests for panel data analysis study for the period 1998 to 2017. Findings ― The findings reveal a strong cointegration relationship between trade liberalization, financial development, and economic growth. It was understood that trade liberalisation positively affected economic growth, and financial development negatively affected economic growth in the long term for the whole panel. However, when the variables are analysed for each country in the panel, it is seen that the sign and severity of the coefficients change. Also, according to panel causality test results, it was understood that there was no causal relationship between variables. Implication ― This paper supports the notion that the direction of the relationship among trade liberalisation, financial development, and economic growth change according to countries in Turkey and the Turkic Republics. Originality ― This paper contributes to the literature by the general view that trade liberalisation and financial development are the driving force of economic growth; these relations may vary according to the country group examined in the studies, the period handled, and the econometric method applied.
Islamic banks credit risk performance for home financing: Before and during Covid-19 pandemic MB Hendrie Anto; Faaza Fakhrunnas; Yunice Karina Tumewang
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 14 Issue 1, 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art9

Abstract

Purpose ― This study aims to assess the home financing credit risk performed by Islamic banks in Indonesia. Methods ― A panel dynamic analysis is adopted to measure the bad loan performance before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The observation period started from January 2016 to September 2020 with 1,881 observation periods of monthly panel data from the province level. Findings ― The study finds a difference in bad loan performance before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. Before this pandemic, inflation has a positive and significant influence on non-performing financing in real estate, rental business, and company service. However, during the Covid-19 pandemic, a substantial and positive effect of inflation is found on the bad loan for personal flat and apartment ownership. On the other hand, a significant and negative impact of inflation is found on the bad home loan for personal business shop ownership. Implication ― This analysis could trigger the government to provide financial assistance for those affected by the Covid-19 crisis. In addition to that, an Islamic bank is also expected to give financing allowances for them by providing an option of debt restructuration and rescheduling. Originality ― This paper analyses the Islamic bank’s credit risk performance for home financing before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. This issue has not been presented in the literature to the best of our knowledge.
Foreign direct investment, efficiency, and total factor productivity: Does technology intensity classification matter? Mohammad Zeqi Yasin; Dyah Wulan Sari
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 14 Issue 1, 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art4

Abstract

Purpose ― We examine whether the foreign direct investment (FDI) in promoting technical efficiency is controlled by the sector classifications based on the technology intensity (High Technology, Medium-High Technology, Medium-Low Technology, and Low Technology). Methods ― We use the Indonesian firm-level dataset of the large and medium manufacturing survey from 2007 to 2015 and employ the time-varying stochastic production frontier. Findings ― We reveal that FDI, technology intensity and absorptive Capacity significantly affect firms' production and efficiency. We also found that the Indonesian manufacturing industry from 2007 to 2015 experienced positive Total Factor Productivity growth, where High-Technology sectors experienced the largest magnitude among others. Meanwhile, technological progress stemming from FDI is enjoyed more by Low Technology sectors. Meaning to say, technology intensity classification does not matter to technological progress. Implication ― The host country's government should focus on industries with high technical capabilities to accelerate FDI gains for the firms. Simultaneously, human capital improvement also needs to be intensified, for instance, through training or human development, so that firms with lower technical capability can catch up and, consequently, receive similar benefits from FDI activities. Originality ― Our study accommodates the research gap by including the FDI effect in both productivity and efficiency in a single equation. Many studies merely categorize technology intensity following the stochastic production frontier estimation to obtain technical efficiency or TFP growth. In this sense, those studies did not control the impact of the technology-specific effect.
Does sectoral loan portfolio composition matter for the monetary policy transmission? Van Dan Dang; Hoang Chung Nguyen
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 14 Issue 1, 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art3

Abstract

Purpose ─ The paper empirically explores the conditioning role of loan portfolio diversification in the monetary policy pass-through via the bank lending and risk-taking channels. Methods ─ Data of Vietnamese commercial banks during 2007–2019 is employed to perform regression using the two-step system generalized method of moments in dynamic panel models. For robustness, we approach different choices of monetary policy indicators, ranging from interest-based tools to quantitative-based policy, and consider a rich set of sectoral exposure measures to proxy loan portfolio diversification. Findings ─ Lower interest rates or greater liquidity injection during monetary expansion may increase bank lending and bank risk, thus confirming the working of the bank lending and risk-taking channels of monetary policy transmission. Notably, the potency of these banking channels may be weakened for banks diversifying loan portfolios more into various economic sectors. Implication ─ The findings call for monetary authorities to concentrate on certain types of banks, depending on their loan portfolios when setting monetary policy. When managing banking supervision, banking supervisors should also acknowledge the tradeoff between bank lending and bank risk in response to monetary shocks. Originality ─ For the first time, this paper explores the conditional role of loan portfolio composition and thus further supports the recent upsurge in empirical studies highlighting the role of business models in monetary policy pass-through.
Analysing network structures and dynamics of the Pakistan stock market across the uncertain time of global pandemic (Covid-19) Bilal Ahmed Memon
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 14 Issue 1, 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art7

Abstract

Purpose ― The global pandemic COVID-19 has attracted considerable interest from researchers globally. However, there is very little systematic work on the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the local stock markets. This paper proposes a complex network method that examines the effects of global pandemic COVID-19 on the Pakistan stock market to fill in these gaps. Methods ― Firstly, correlograms are plotted to inspect the correlation matrices of the overall and two sub-sample periods. Secondly, correlation threshold networks and topological properties are examined for different threshold levels. Finally, this paper uses evolving MSTs to construct a dynamical complex network and presents dynamic centrality measures, normalised tree, and average path lengths. Findings ― The findings show that COVID-19 related certainty and crisis lead to low volatility and a star-like structure, resulting in a quick flow of information and a strong correlation among the Pakistan stock market. Implication ― This analysis would help investors and regulators to manage the Pakistan stock market better. In addition, the comprehensive study solely on the Pakistan stock market will be helpful for Pakistan government officials and stock market participants to assess and predict the risks of the Pakistan stock market associated with the global pandemic COVID-19.  Originality ― This paper addresses both classes of the networks. To the best of our knowledge, the static and dynamic evolution of the Pakistan stock market around the global pandemic COVID-19 has not been performed yet.
Forecasting inflation in Turkey: A comparison of time-series and machine learning models Hale Akbulut
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 14 Issue 1, 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art5

Abstract

Purpose: This paper aims to test the accuracy of some Machine Learning (ML) models in forecasting inflation in the case of Turkey and to give a new and also complementary approach to time series models.  Methods: This paper forecasts inflation in Turkey by using time-series and machine learning (ML) models. The data is spanning from the period 2006:M1 to 2020:M12. Findings: According to our findings, although the linear-based Ridge and Lasso regression algorithms perform worse than the VAR model, the multilayer perceptron algorithm gives satisfactory results that are close to the results of the time series algorithm. In this direction, non-linear machine learning models are thought to be a reliable complementary method for estimating inflation in emerging economies. It is also predicted that it can be considered as an alternative method as the amount of data and computational power increase. Implication: The findings are expected to be useful as a guide for central banks and policy-makers in emerging economies with volatile inflation rates. Originality: We evaluate the forecasting performance of ML models against each other and a time series model, and investigate possible improvements upon the naive model. So, this is the first study in the field, which uses both linear and nonlinear ML methods to make a comparison with the time series inflation forecasts for Turkey.
On the asymmetric effect of real exchange rate on growth: Evidence from Africa James Temitope Dada
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 14 Issue 1, 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art2

Abstract

Purpose ― This study investigates the asymmetric effect of real exchange rates on the economic growth of twenty African countries for the period 2005 to 2019. Design/Method/Approach ― A refined method of Granger and Yoon (2002) was used to decompose real exchange into appreciation and depreciation. To address the problem of endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, a two-steps system generalized method of moments, Driscoll-Kraay estimator, and Augmented Mean group were used. Findings ― This study established the presence of asymmetries in the real exchange rate in the region. Further, the study found that real exchange rate appreciation inhibits economic growth while real exchange rate depreciation is beneficial to growth in the region. The results are robust to different estimation techniques. Practical Implications ― The outcome of this study supports the traditional view of exchange rates on macroeconomic variables. Hence, findings from this study can help investors and policymakers in the region to better understand the dynamics of the exchange rate and its effect on economic growth. Originality/Value ― This study enriches the literature on the relationship between exchange rate and growth, especially in Africa using a refined approach to decompose exchange rate into appreciation and depreciation.
Nonlinear effects of ıncome ınequality on economic growth: A comparative analysis of selected countries Emin Efecan Aktas; Pelin Varol Iyidogan
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 14 Issue 1, 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art6

Abstract

Purpose ― The paper queries the impacts of income inequality on economic growth in selected advanced and emerging market economies by adopting nonlinearity and endogeneity. Methods ― This research analysis is based on a balanced panel from 1996 to 2018 and employs the dynamic panel threshold analysis after baseline estimations with the fixed-effect, system Generalized Method of Moments, and difference Generalized Method of Moments. Findings ― This study finds a nonlinearity between income inequality and economic growth. Income inequality has a significant threshold effect on the growth of both panels. Besides, the threshold effect of emerging market countries is higher than the level for advanced countries. This means emerging market economies are negatively affected above the estimated threshold value according to the advanced economies. Implication ― This paper supports that inequality may harm much more economic growth above a specific level. On the other hand, these distorting effects are related to the other economic issues of countries, such as government spending, inflation, export of goods and services, gross fixed capital formation, and foreign direct investment. Originality ― This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the nonlinear effects of income inequality and different aspects of economic growth above or below the estimated threshold value, thereby providing cross-country comparability and endogeneity.
Revisiting the macroeconomic variables and economic growth nexus: A Markov regime-switching approach Asma Fiaz; Nabila Khurshid; Ahsan ul Haq Satti
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 14 Issue 1, 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art8

Abstract

Purpose ―Current paper assesses the impact of macroeconomic variables on Pakistan's economic growth. Method ― This study analyzed the data using the Markov Regime switching (MS) model using monthly data for 1981-2020. Firstly, BDS and CUSUM square tests were applied to detect the non-linearity of the model. Results ―The model is non-linear, so the Markov regime-switching model is used for analysis. Each regime's mean and variance are highly significant and show a high growth regime with high volatility and a low growth regime with low volatility. Furthermore, the results show that inflation, interest rate, and trade openness negatively impact while real effective exchange rates positively affect development in both regimes. The negative effect of interest rate, exchange rate, inflation, and trade openness become more pronounced in low growth regimes. Implication ― This study suggests that policymakers should consider the non-linear behaviour of macroeconomics. This will help to formulate better policies for the economy's economic growth. Originality ―The current research adds to the existing literature by identifying the non-linear effect of growth indicators on economic growth, which was previously neglected in the case of Pakistan.
Foreign direct investment inflow: The drivers and motivations in MENA Region Osarumwense Osabuohien-Irabor
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 14 Issue 1, 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art1

Abstract

Purpose ― Reasons why Multinational Enterprise (MNEs) engage in foreign direct investment (hereafter referred to as FDI) abroad have been of great interest to policy markets, academia and international portfolio investors. This examines FDI inflow motives to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for the period 2005 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach ― This research paper applies both the static and dynamic panel methodologies such as SYS-GMM, fixed effects, and pooled OLS estimators to investigate the motivational factors of MNEs FDI inflows to MENA countries. Findings ― Although specificity applies to countries, estimated results suggest that MNEs in the MENA region are predominantly interested in serving both home and host markets. Other motives such as efficiency-seeking FDI vary across countries, indicating that FDI motives are not homogeneous among region members. This paper provides useful insight for both firms and host countries in the region. Originality/value ― This research paper investigates the factors that motivate MNEs to consider FDI decisions in MENA countries. Rather than investigate the individual countries within the region as done in existing literature, this research paper simultaneously examines MNEs' investment motivations in the MENA region. The findings are significant, plausible and in line with the economic development of most countries in the region.

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