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Quantitative Economics Journal
Published by Universitas Negeri Medan
ISSN : 20897847     EISSN : 20897995     DOI : 10.24114
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
This journal is contained with the articles that cover the economics area that derived from the research and engineering ideas that are quantitative. The viewers, authors and future authors that expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the Department of Economics, Post Graduate Program, State University of Medan
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (Lain-Lain)
Articles 4 Documents
 1 
Search results for , issue "Vol 4, No 1 (2015)" : 4 Documents clear
PEMBENTUKAN MODEL ARIMA UNTUK PERAMALAN INFLASI KELOMPOK BAHAN MAKANAN DI KOTA TERNATE Rizal Rahman H Teapon
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 4, No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v4i1.17460

Abstract

ARIMA modeling and forecasting inflation foodstuffs in Ternate city is the purpose of this study. The method used in this research is ARIMA (Auto Regressive Moving avarage). The results showed that ARIMA (6,1,6) is the best model because it has been qualified in the test parameter estimation, diagnostic test/evaluation models and instrument evaluation test for fault models.
STRATEGI HEDGING PADA PENGELOLAAN HUTANG LUAR-NEGERI PEMERINTAH INDONESIA TERHADAP RESIKO FLUKTUASI NILAI TUKAR US DOLLAR Mrs Miksalmina
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 4, No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v4i1.17461

Abstract

During this time, the position of External Debt (ED) government has always had the exposure risk from a fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates to USDollar. Usually, the ED values to swell because of the risk of weakening of the Rupiah against the USDollar. This study aims to look at the effectiveness of hedging strategies on the management of the government's foreign debt of Indonesia to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations of US dollar, by making a simulation of hedging forward contracts. A hedging strategy with a new forward contract will be executed if the rate exceeds Rp 10,000 per USDollar as psychological level. In this simulation, the Government applied a hedging strategy by purchasing forward contracts. This purchasing strategy will generate profits only when the values of forward contracts of USD / IDR weakened at the maturity date later. But if the opposite happens, then potential losses will occur. To minimize the potential loss, wee need this necessary analysis of historical and technical movement of the rupiah against the USDollar, followed by mechanisms of active trading. Active trading allows the government took the position prior purchases or sales in forward contracts advance, depending on the signal and market trends that occurred at that time. By hedging forward contracts, the resulting changes in the value of external debt on the simulation type 2 is much lower. In other words, it shows that the real strengthening of the rupiah with hedging strategies can ease the burden of official external debt, so it can be quite effective to reduce the external debt burden of the government when the time payment or maturity date is come.
ANALISIS INTERDEPENDENSI PENDAPATAN PEMERINTAH DENGAN PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH Marlon Naibaho
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 4, No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v4i1.17462

Abstract

This research examines the interdependence analysis of government income to government expenditure in Indonesia, in which problems arise in this study is that government expenditure is always greater than the government income, although government income in a given year is greater than government expenditure.This research aims to look at the pattern or direction of causality between government income to government expenditure.Variables to be tested are government income and government expenditure.The data that are used are time series data 1988-2011 period.Sources of data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra Province.The method used is the Granger Causality. Results of the research showed that between government income to government spending have a unidirectional causality, the causality runs from government expenditure to government income, then there is a relationship between the two variables and both have  long-term rapid adjustment towards the long-term.
FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERMINTAAN KEDELAI DI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA Rahmanta Ginting
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 4, No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v4i1.17459

Abstract

A soybean is a food crops and vegetable proteins source important for people in North Sumatera Province. A soybean demands increased from year to year in North Sumatera Province. It caused by several factors such as a population growth, per capita income, and change in food consumption patterns with economic growth in North Sumatera Province. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze a factors that influence of soybean demand in North Sumatera Province. The data used a secondary data sourced in the form of time series from 1990 – 2013. The analysis model is a double linear regression. The result showed that the soybean price influences negative and not significant to the soybean demand, the corn price influences positive and not significant to soybean demand, while the total population and per capita income influences positive and not significant to soybean demand in North Sumatera Province.

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