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Adnan Sauddin
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Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA)
Published by Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar
ISSN : 2355038X     EISSN : 25500767     DOI : https://doi.org/10.24252/msa
Core Subject : Economy, Health, Science, Education, Social,
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology
The Jurnal MSA (Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya) is a brand new on-line anonymously peer-reviewed journal interested in any aspect related to mathematics and statistics with their application. The Jurnal MSA is ready to receive manuscripts on all aspects concerning any aspect related to mathematics and statistics science with their application.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Matematika (Lain-Lain)
Articles 302 Documents
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PREDIKSI PEMUTUSAN RANTAI PENYAKIT TALASEMIA DENGAN PERNIKAHAN TERKONTROL MENGGUNAKAN DIAGONALISASI MATRIKS
Jurnal MSA (Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya) Vol 14 No 1 (2026): VOLUME 14 No 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24252/msa.v14i1.61493

Abstract

Human diseases can arise from various factors, one of which is heredity. In this case, individuals inherit specific genetic traits from their parents that may lead to disease. Thalassemia is one such hereditary disease. A key preventive measure against thalassemia is avoiding marriages between individuals who both carry the thalassemia gene, whether in the minor or major form. The transmission of thalassemia genes across generations can be modeled using a matrix that represents the probabilities of gene inheritance. This study, conducted through a literature review approach, demonstrates the probabilities of thalassemia gene types in the n-th generation under controlled marriage conditions, where marriage is permitted only if at least one parent is of normal genotype (neither affected nor a carrier). A probability matrix of thalassemia inheritance is constructed, followed by the determination of eigenvalues and eigenvectors for matrix diagonalization. This approach is employed to predict the distribution of genotypes in the n-th generation. The findings indicate that, under controlled marriage conditions, thalassemia major will be completely eliminated by the first generation, thereby preventing its occurrence in subsequent generations. Furthermore, over successive generations, the proportion of thalassemia minor cases will gradually decline and eventually approach zero.
Analisis Overdispersi pada Data Kasus Tuberkulosis di Provinsi Lampung Menggunakan Binomial Negatif
Jurnal MSA (Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya) Vol 14 No 1 (2026): VOLUME 14 No 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24252/msa.v14i1.63646

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem, particularly in developing countries. The analysis of TB case counts typically involves count data that often exhibit overdispersion, making the selection of an appropriate statistical model essential. This study aims to model the number of TB cases in Lampung Province and to identify factors associated with its incidence using a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach. The analytical methods applied include Poisson regression and negative binomial regression. Poisson regression was first employed, followed by testing the equidispersion assumption. The results indicate the presence of overdispersion in the data; therefore, negative binomial regression was adopted as a more suitable alternative. Model selection was based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The results show that negative binomial regression outperforms Poisson regression in modeling TB case counts. The number of people living in poverty has a statistically significant effect on increasing TB cases, while the number of public hospitals and population density do not exhibit statistically significant effects. These findings suggest that socioeconomic factors play a critical role in the spread of TB in Lampung Province. This study concludes that negative binomial regression is a more appropriate model for analyzing TB case counts with overdispersion. The findings are expected to provide useful insights for policymakers in designing TB control strategies that integrate socioeconomic interventions with improvements in healthcare service quality.

Page 31 of 31 | Total Record : 302

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