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All Journal JUITA : Jurnal Informatika Inferensi
Windi Pangesti
IPB University
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering Mathematics Social Sciences

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Performance Evaluation of ARIMA and GRU Models for Forecasting Chili Price in East Jawa Windi Pangesti; Nabila Syukri; Khairil Anwar Notodiputro; Yenni Angraini; Laily Nissa Atul Mualifah
JUITA: Jurnal Informatika JUITA Vol. 13 Issue 2, July 2025
Publisher : Department of Informatics Engineering, Universitas Muhammadiyah Purwokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30595/juita.v13i2.26445

Abstract

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in predicting future conditions based on historical data, particularly in the food sector, which is highly susceptible to price fluctuations. This study compares two approaches: the conventional ARIMA method and the deep learning method GRU, to forecast the price of red chillies in East Java. East Java was chosen because it is the largest national producer of chilies, thus the stability of its prices has a broad impact. The research results indicate that the GRU model outperforms the ARIMA model with a MAPE value of 19.80% compared to a MAPE of 27.63% for the latter. The benefit of this research is to contribute to the literature on developing agricultural commodity price forecasting models as a basis for enhancing food security policies and stabilizing commodity prices, particularly in East Java Province, Indonesia
Performance Analysis of Tree-Based Models for Classifying Complete Basic Childhood Immunization in West Java Windi Pangesti; Mega Maulina; Hazelita Dwi Rahmasari; Bagus Sartono; Budi Susetyo; Aulia Rizki Firdawanti; Gerry Alfa Dito
Inferensi Vol 9 No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Department of Statistics ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j27213862.v9i1.9167

Abstract

Complete basic immunization is a key public health indicator, and disparities in coverage remain a major concern in West Java. The 2024 Universal Child Immunization (UCI) rate in West Java reached only 77.47%, declining from 2023 and reflecting persistent disparities in access to immunization services, particularly between urban and rural areas. This study aims to identify the determinants of complete basic immunization among children in West Java using SUSENAS 2024 survey data (n = 4,672). Three tree- based classification algorithms CART, Random Forest, and LightGBM were applied, with class imbalance addressed using SMOTE, Tomek Links, and the SMOTE–Tomek Links hybrid method. Model performance was evaluated using balanced accuracy. The Random Forest model combined with SMOTE achieved the highest performance, with a balanced accuracy of 60.3% and an overall accuracy of 70.3%. This model also demonstrated superior capability in identifying children with incomplete immunization. Global feature importance results indicate that household spending category, KIA book ownership, maternal age at first birth, and maternal education are the strongest predictors of complete basic immunization. SHAP analysis reveals contrasting patterns: knowledge- based factors dominate in urban areas, while structural and socioeconomic constraints are more influential in rural areas. These findings underscore the importance of geographically targeted immunization strategies to support equitable access across urban and rural communities in West Java.
Co-Authors Aulia Rizki Firdawanti Bagus Sartono Budi Susetyo Gerry Alfa Dito Hazelita Dwi Rahmasari Laily Nissa Atul Mualifah Mega Maulina Nabila Syukri Yenni Angraini