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All Journal International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences, and Technology for National Defense Indonesia Berdampak: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Eko Primadi Hendri
Politeknik Transportasi Darat Indonesia - STTD
Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

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Times series data analysis: The Holt-Winters model for rainfall prediction In West Java Eko Primadi Hendri; Sarah Fadhlia
International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences, and Technology for National Defense Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences, and Technology for Nati
Publisher : FoundAE

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58524/app.sci.def.v2i1.325

Abstract

Time series data analysis is used to analyze data that considers time and data characteristics to predict future events. One of the time series data is rainfall data. Rainfall data has a seasonal pattern because there is a pattern that repeats itself over a certain period. Data analysis that considers the characteristics of seasonal patterns is the Holt-Winters method. The Holt-Winters model is divided into two, namely additive and multiplicative models. This research aims to compare the Holt-Winters additive and multiplicative methods to see the accuracy in predicting rainfall data in West Java. The additive model has level parameter I±=0,435, trend parameter I²=0, seasonal parameter I³=1, and RMSE value 140,174. The multiplicative model has level parameter I±=0,936, trend parameter I²=0, seasonal parameter I³=0,247, and RMSE value 150,020. The additive model has a smaller RMSE value so it can predict future rainfall with greater accuracy.
Peningkatan Pengetahuan Rambu Lalu Lintas melalui Penyuluhan kepada Ibu-Ibu PKK di Desa Cimanggis, Kabupaten Bogor Eko Primadi Hendri; Aan Sunandar; Torang Hutabarat; Tatang Adhiatna; Sulistyo Sutanto; Sarah Fadhlia
Indonesia Berdampak: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Vol. 2 No. 2 (2026): JULI-DESEMBER
Publisher : Indo Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63822/8xnhnb29

Abstract

Limited public understanding of the functions and meanings of traffic signs may affect traffic discipline and increase the risk of traffic violations and accidents. Women members of the Family Welfare Empowerment (PKK) organization play a strategic role as educators within their families; therefore, improving their knowledge of traffic signs is expected to have a broader impact on community traffic safety awareness. This community service program aimed to improve the participants’ knowledge of traffic sign classifications, functions, and meanings through lectures, interactive discussions, and demonstrations. The activity was conducted in RT 001/RW 001, Cimanggis Village, Bojonggede District, Bogor Regency, involving 17 PKK members. The effectiveness of the program was evaluated using a one-group pretest–posttest design. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, followed by the Shapiro–Wilk normality test and a paired-samples t-test. The results showed that the mean score increased from 4.65 in the pretest to 7.53 in the posttest, representing an improvement of 2.88 points. The Shapiro–Wilk test indicated that the data were normally distributed (p = 0.207), while the paired-samples t-test revealed a statistically significant improvement in participants’ knowledge after the educational intervention (t = −6.255, p < 0.001). Furthermore, 76.47% of the participants achieved a posttest score of at least seven, meeting the predetermined success indicator. These findings demonstrate that lecture-based education combined with discussion, demonstration, and visual learning media is effective in improving community knowledge of traffic signs and supporting the development of a traffic safety culture within families and the wider community.
Co-Authors Aan Sunandar Sarah Fadhlia Sarah Fadhlia Sulistyo Sutanto Tatang Adhiatna Torang Hutabarat