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All Journal Perspectives in Mathematics and Applications (PERMATA)
Chandra Sari Widyaningrum
Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Purwokerto
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Physics

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Analisis deret waktu dan peramalan pengangguran di Kabupaten Purbalingga menggunakan metode penghalusan eksponensial ganda Brown: Evaluasi berbasis akurasi. Dian Pratama; Chandra Sari Widyaningrum; Priska Sari Dewi
Perspectives in Mathematics and Applications Vol 2 No 01 (2026): Juni
Publisher : Kreasi Pustaka Mandiri (Krestama)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.66256/permata.v2i1.43

Abstract

Unemployment remains a persistent socioeconomic challenge in Indonesia, including Purbalingga Regency, Central Java. This study analyzes the unemployment trend and forecasts the number of unemployed individuals in Purbalingga Regency using a time-series approach. Annual unemployment data for 2010–2024 from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) were modeled using Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing (DES), which is suitable for non-seasonal series with a linear trend. The smoothing parameter (α) was examined from 0.1 to 0.9, and model performance was evaluated using MAD, MSE, and MAPE based on in-sample fitted errors over the 2010–2024 period. The results indicate a fluctuating but upward trend, particularly after the COVID-19 period. The best-performing parameter was α = 0.2, producing the lowest MAD and MAPE; under this evaluation setting, MAPE was below 1%, indicating low in-sample error. Using the selected model, unemployment in 2025 is forecast at approximately 31,795 people. These findings suggest that Brown’s DES can provide a practical baseline forecast to support evidence-based labor market policy and regional economic planning, while the results should be interpreted with caution, given the linear-trend and univariate assumptions.
Co-Authors Dian Pratama Priska Sari Dewi