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All Journal Proceeding National Conference Business, Management, and Accounting (NCBMA)
Hananiel Menoverdi
Universitas Pelita Harapan
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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CONFUSING BRAINS WITH RETURNS: EVIDENCE OF INVESTOR OVERCONFIDENCE AND TRADING ACTIVITY IN THE INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET Yanuar Dananjaya; Hananiel Menoverdi; Priskila Napitupulu
Proceeding National Conference Business, Management, and Accounting (NCBMA) 9th National Conference Business, Management, and Accounting
Publisher : Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Pelita Harapan

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Abstract

This study investigates the presence of investor overconfidence in the Indonesian equity market by analyzing the lead-lag relationship between stock returns and subsequent trading activity. Focusing on the constituents of the LQ45 index from January 2023 to December 2025, we employ a firm-level panel data approach with fixed effects and clustered robust standard errors on a monthly dataset (N=1,485$). Using share turnover as a proxy for trading intensity, the analysis tests the hypothesis that past positive returns lead to increased trading volume due to biased self-attribution. The empirical results demonstrate that both contemporaneous and lagged individual stock returns exert a positive and statistically significant influence on trading activity (p < 0.05$), confirming that Indonesian investors tend to trade more aggressively following periods of capital gains. This behavioral pattern remains robust across alternative turnover specifications, including total-share and free-float-based proxies, as well as log-transformed models. Furthermore, lagged market returns exhibit a dominant positive effect, suggesting that market-wide sentiment acts as a powerful catalyst for trading frequency. These findings provide strong evidence of overconfidence-driven behavior in the Jakarta Composite Index, highlighting how psychological biases—rather than purely fundamental information—drive market liquidity and volatility in an emerging market context.
Co-Authors Priskila Napitupulu Yanuar Dananjaya