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All Journal Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat dan Riset Pendidikan Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Suci Izzati
Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Humanities Education Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Other

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Analysis of Passenger Flight Distance as an Indicator of Economic Activity Ihsan Fathoni Amri; Suci Izzati; Rendi Andika Putra; Iva Aurellia Khalif; Febryana Dilla Setyaningrum; Isnaini Maulida; M. Al Haris
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 5 No 1 (2026): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv5i1pp111-124

Abstract

Understanding macroeconomic dynamics in the United States requires advanced forecasting techniques capable of capturing both seasonal structures and external shocks. This study investigates the relationship between passenger flight distance and the unemployment rate through the implementation of the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX) model—an enhancement of the SARIMA framework. While SARIMA accounts for autoregressive, differencing, and moving average components with seasonal integration, SARIMAX further augments this structure by incorporating exogenous predictors, enhancing explanatory and predictive power. Monthly time series data from 2015 to 2024 were utilized, with flight distance as the endogenous variable and the unemployment rate as the exogenous regressor. The modeling procedure involved rigorous stationarity testing via the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and residual diagnostics employing the Box–Ljung and Shapiro–Wilk tests. SARIMAX(0,1,0)(0,1,1)[12] + X emerged as the optimal specification, with all parameters statistically significant and a MAPE of 3.68%, denoting excellent forecast accuracy. Empirical findings reveal a significant and negative association between unemployment and air travel activity, emphasizing the role of labor market dynamics in shaping mobility trends. These results reinforce the utility of SARIMAX as a robust tool in macroeconomic forecasting and evidence-based policy formulation.
Penguatan dan Pengamalan Al-Islam dan Kemuhammadiyahan (Ibadah Wajib) pada Tenaga Penunjang UNIMUS: Penelitian Ali Imron; Danu Purwanto; Suci Izzati
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat dan Riset Pendidikan Vol. 4 No. 3 (2026): Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat dan Riset Pendidikan Volume 4 Nomor 3 (Januari 202
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/jerkin.v4i3.4725

Abstract

Strengthening Islamic and Muhammadiyah values ​​(AIK) is an important foundation in developing religious attitudes and an Islamic work ethic within the Muhammadiyah Community Service environment. However, support staff such as office boys, drivers, and security guards at the University of Muhammadiyah Semarang (UNIMUS) often do not receive systematic guidance regarding the implementation of obligatory worship, especially the five daily prayers. This community service activity aims to increase understanding, awareness, and consistency in the practice of obligatory worship through an educational, participatory approach and the application of simple learning media. Implementation methods include socialization, andragogy-based worship practice training, the provision of short learning videos, the use of daily worship journals (printed and digital), and routine mentoring. Evaluation was carried out through pre-post tests, observation of worship practices, and participant reflections. The results of the activity showed a significant increase in the understanding and implementation of obligatory worship, reflected in increased post-test scores, regular congregational prayers, and increased spiritual commitment of support staff. In conclusion, this program is effective in strengthening the practice of obligatory worship while building a more harmonious Islamic work culture within the UNIMUS environment.
Co-Authors Ali Imron Danu Purwanto Febryana Dilla Setyaningrum Ihsan Fathoni Amri Isnaini Maulida Iva Aurellia Khalif M. Al Haris Rendi Andika Putra