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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis dan Pendidikan (JEBP) Journal of Economics, Assets, and Evaluation
Mustafa Ibrahim Abdullah
University of Samarra
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Other

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Measuring and Analyzing The Impact of Public Spending on Economic Stability in Iraq For The Period 2010-2024 Mustafa Ibrahim Abdullah; Wasan Mashal Sarhan; Abdullah Muhammad Rashid Al-Ramli
Journal of Economics, Assets, and Evaluation Vol. 3 No. 3 (2026): March
Publisher : Indonesian Journal Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47134/jeae.v3i3.1046

Abstract

This study aims to measure and analyze the impact of public spending on achieving economic stability in Iraq during the period 2010–2024, in light of the structural fluctuations experienced by the Iraqi economy resulting from oil shocks and political and health crises The study adopted a quantitative approach based on time series data for public spending and the economic stability indicator (GDP). Econometric models, such as the Autoregressive Lag Diagram (ARDL), were also used to analyze the long-term and short-term relationships between the variables. Preliminary findings indicate that public spending in Iraq tends to be expansionary, with a significant concentration on current expenditures compared to investment spending, thus limiting its capacity to generate sustainable growth. The results also showed a significant relationship between public spending and short-term economic stability indicators, but no such relationship was found in the long term. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the Iraqi economy is highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil revenues, making the impact of public spending on stability contingent on the ability of fiscal policy to manage the economic cycle and achieve a balance between spending and revenues
EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE IRAQ`STRADE BALANCE: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYTICAL STUDY FOR THE PERIOD 2010-2024 Mustafa Ibrahim Abdullah
Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis dan Pendidikan Vol. 6 No. 4 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

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Abstract

The influence of the Iraqi economy is closely related with the amount of oil revenue that can be generated by the Iraqi economy, as the oil revenues are one of the important factors that have affected the economic picture of Iraq. In this regard, the study was aimed to study the following: 1- Econometric analysis method of studying the differences between the rates of the currencies and their impact on the trade balance of Iraq during the period (2010-2024). The research has significance as it attempts to explain the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on exports and imports and the overall activity of international trade in a small and undiversified economy, typical of a rentier economy. From the empirical results, it could be inferred that there is a negative relationship between trade balance (Y) and exchange rate (X). The estimated value of the coefficient shows that a 1% increase in the exchange rate leads to an increase in trade balance by 0.8754. This is because it is very dependent upon oil revenues and extremely sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations that can cause very volatile trade balance. The results have also indicated that the non-oil productive sectors have been contributing little share to the foreign trade trade of Iraq and that the oil products trade is still the main contributor to foreign trade trade in Iraq. In addition, the depreciation of the Iraqi dinar has contributed only slightly to the boost in non-oil exports, and has exerted downward pressure on price soared imports of goods and services and contributed to inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the world's oil price fluctuations have a larger effect on Iraq's trade balance than the fluctuations in the exchange rate. It therefore suggests that the economic policies adopted should focus on diversifying and expanding the productive base of the economy; support the industrial and agricultural sectors; promote non-oil exports, and minimize reliance on oil earnings. These would improve the trade stance of Iraq.
Co-Authors Abdullah Muhammad Rashid Al-Ramli Wasan Mashal Sarhan