<![CDATA[Inflation is one of the challenging and vital issues of economics, which has an undeniable effect on economic stability in countries all over the world. For this reason, many researchers and policymakers have always sought to identify the factors affecting inflation. In this regard, oil price, as one of the global and strategic variables, can have a significant effect on inflation, especially in countries dependent on oil revenues, such as Iran. Accordingly, given the importance of inflation and the need to identify its causes and determinants on the one hand, and the prominent role of supply-side factors on the other hand, the aim of the present study is to examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on the inflation rate, taking into account the threshold effect of economic growth, and also to identify other supply-side determinants of the inflation rate, including technology and labor market dynamics, over the period 1996–2022 (1375–1401), using the time-series threshold regression econometric approach. According to the results, when economic growth is lower than 4.303%, the oil price has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate. This effect is also positive and significant when economic growth is above the said threshold, but its magnitude is smaller. In addition, the unemployment and technology indices have negative and significant effects on the inflation rate, which respectively confirm the Phillips theory and the Solow (1956) growth theory. In contrast, the population size variable has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate.]]>
Copyrights © 2026
