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Vitreous Humor Biochemical Markers and Non-Linear Regression for Post-Mortem Interval Estimation in Indonesian Tropical Autopsy Cases Lisha Sandrina; Paula Guelle; Ahmad Erza
Sriwijaya Journal of Forensic and Medicolegal Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): Sriwijaya Journal of Forensic and Medicolegal
Publisher : Phlox Institute: Indonesian Medical Research Organization

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59345/sjfm.v4i1.258

Abstract

Introduction: Accurate post-mortem interval (PMI) estimation remains a critical challenge in tropical forensic pathology, where accelerated biochemical decomposition makes temperate-derived formulae unreliable. This prospective validation study investigated non-linear regression modeling of vitreous humor potassium (K+), hypoxanthine (Hx), and urea nitrogen (BUN) for PMI estimation in Indonesian tropical autopsy cases (January–December 2025). Methods: A total of 85 consecutive forensic autopsy cases were enrolled at the Department of Forensic Medicine, Hospital X, Palembang, Indonesia. PMI was verified by at least two independent sources (mean verification uncertainty ±1.4 hours). Vitreous K+ was measured by ion-selective electrode; Hx by enzymatic colorimetry; BUN by the urease-GLDH method. Logarithmic, quadratic, and square-root non-linear regression models were fitted for each biomarker; model selection was guided by R², adjusted R², and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Cross-validation was performed by leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV). Results: Vitreous K+ demonstrated the strongest quadratic association with PMI (R² = 0.957, LOOCV-R² = 0.942, RMSE = 0.38 mmol/L). BUN showed a quadratic pattern (R² = 0.837, LOOCV-R² = 0.819, RMSE = 1.75 mg/dL) and Hx a square-root pattern (R² = 0.438, RMSE = 3.83 µmol/L). The combined multivariate non-linear model [PMI = 56.19·ln(K++1) + 1.85·√Hx + 1.86·BUN − 136.08] achieved R² = 0.951, LOOCV-R² = 0.934, and RMSE = 4.75 hours. Variance inflation factors for all predictors were ≤2.8, confirming acceptable multicollinearity. K+ and BUN were independent significant predictors (both p < 0.001); Hx did not reach independent significance (p = 0.095). The combined model is valid for K+ ≥ 4.2 mmol/L. Conclusion: Non-linear regression of vitreous biochemical markers provides accurate, locally validated PMI estimation for Indonesian tropical forensic practice, with a combined model RMSE of 4.75 hours over 1–72 hours post-mortem.
Reading the Epigenetic Clock: A Comparative Analysis of DNA Methylation Markers for Age Estimation in Semen, Saliva, and Touch DNA Febria Suryani; Bryan Helsey; Leonardo Simanjuntak; Karina Chandra; Mustafa Mahmud; Lisha Sandrina; Ahmad Erza
Sriwijaya Journal of Forensic and Medicolegal Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Sriwijaya Journal of Forensic and Medicolegal
Publisher : Phlox Institute: Indonesian Medical Research Organization

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59345/sjfm.v3i1.233

Abstract

Introduction: The capacity to predict an individual's age from biological evidence constitutes a significant advancement in forensic intelligence. DNA methylation, a stable epigenetic mark, provides a molecular basis for "epigenetic clocks." However, the operational reliability of these clocks necessitates rigorous validation across diverse biological samples and populations, particularly for challenging, low-template touch DNA evidence. Methods: Following approval from the Ethical Committee of CMHC Indonesia (No. 128/EC/CMHC/2023), we recruited 150 healthy Indonesian male volunteers aged 18-65. Semen, saliva, and high-yield standardized touch DNA samples were collected. DNA was extracted, quantified fluorometrically, and subjected to bisulfite conversion with efficiency controls. The methylation levels of a curated five-CpG panel (ELOVL2, FHL2, TRIM59, KCNQ1DN, C1orf132) were quantified using a rigorously controlled pyrosequencing workflow. Body-fluid-specific age prediction models were developed using multiple linear regression, validated with 10-fold cross-validation, and assessed for statistical assumptions including multicollinearity. Results: The models for semen and saliva demonstrated high predictive accuracy, yielding Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) values of 3.19 years (R²=0.94) and 3.55 years (R²=0.92), respectively. The model developed from high-yield touch DNA was less precise but still highly informative, with a MAD of 5.49 years (R²=0.85). All models satisfied the assumptions of linear regression, with Variance Inflation Factors below 2.5 indicating low multicollinearity. The 95% prediction intervals were narrowest for semen, reflecting its superior precision. Conclusion: This study validates a robust, targeted epigenetic panel for age prediction in a Southeast Asian population. We present highly accurate, tissue-specific models for semen and saliva, suitable for immediate consideration in forensic casework. The touch DNA model, while requiring cautious interpretation, provides a valuable framework for generating investigative leads from trace evidence. Our findings underscore the critical importance of tissue-specific modeling and provide a detailed methodological and statistical blueprint for the responsible implementation of forensic age estimation.