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All Journal AL-ARBAH: Journal of Islamic Finance and Banking
Lindiwe Ngcobo
University of South Africa
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Dynamic Impact of Stokvel Savings and Banking Sector Size in South Africa: an ARDL Approach Lindiwe Ngcobo
AL-ARBAH: Journal of Islamic Finance and Banking Vol. 8 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Walisongo Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21580/al-arbah.2026.8.2.31528

Abstract

Purpose - The study examined the impact stokvel savings and banking sector size using ARDL bound test approach to cointegration. Method  - Using quarterly time series secondary data ranging from 2009Q4 to 2020Q2. Data were subjected to unit root analysis to ensure that they were integrated of order zero (I(0)) before regressing the variables in the specified models. Result - The F-statistic value for the linear ARDL and the asymmetric ARDL, bounds test result shows evidence of cointegration among dependent variables because the computed asymmetric ARDL F-statistic values exceed the tabulated value of the upper bound at the 5% level of significance. Therefore, there is no cointegration between the dependent and the independent variables. Therefore, the study failed to reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration amongst the variables in the lower bound. The negative coefficient of the ECT(-1) shows that the relationship between stock savings and banking sector size are cointegrated.  It is evident that there is an inconclusive debate on the drivers of banking sector’s size. Implication - This study contributes to this debate by introducing variable, stokvel savings. A similar study can be conducted with inclusion of all banks that make up the banking sector and their impact on South Africa’s economic growth. Originality - The objective of the study examined the impact of stokvel savings and banking sector size using ARDL bound test approach to cointegration. Keywords: Stokvel savings, Banking sector size, Gross domestic product, Money supply, ARDL, South Africa
Asymmetric impact of stokvel and banking sector efficiency in South Africa: Evidence from non-linear ARDL approach Lindiwe Ngcobo
AL-ARBAH: Journal of Islamic Finance and Banking Vol. 6 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Walisongo Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21580/al-arbah.2024.6.2.23068

Abstract

This study examines the impact of stokvel savings and banking sector efficiency in South Africa using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bound testing approach technique with economic time series data ranging from 2009Q4 to 2020Q2. The NARDL results shows that positive and negative shocks on banking sector efficiency exhibited a positive influence on stokvel savings. An improvement in banking sector efficiency would result in an increase in stokvel savings of approximately 0.33%, while a decline in banking sector efficiency would lead to increase in stokvel savings albeit at a marginally reduced level of approximately 32%. The results are statistically significant at 1% and 5% for a positive shock and a negative shock respectively.  Insignificant results obtained when using gross domestic product growth as dependent variable. This implies that the N-ARDL is not an appropriate model for estimating GDPG. Statistically significant results were found at 5% when using money supply.
The non-linear impact of stokvel savings and banking sector development in South Africa Lindiwe Ngcobo
AL-ARBAH: Journal of Islamic Finance and Banking Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Walisongo Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21580/al-arbah.2025.7.2.26598

Abstract

Purpose - The study investigated the non-linear impact of stokvel savings and banking sector development in South Africa. Method - The study applied the unit root break-even test, bounds F-test or cointegration and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model for short- and long-run asymmetric impact with economic time series data ranging from 2009Q4 to 2020Q2. Result - The results of the break-even unit root tests reveal that variables were found to be I(0) and I(1), thus confirming that variables that are I(2) were not present. The findings of NARDL bounds F-test cointegration that there is a long-run relationship between banking sector size and the selected predictors. The short- and long-run multipliers portray adjustment to a new equilibrium after positive and negative shock. Implication - The empirical results demonstrates that NARDL is not the best model to detect long-run relationship between banking sector size and its predic. Originality - This study investigated the impact of stokvel savings and banking sector size in South Africa using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bound testing approach technique. Keywords: Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag, stokvel savings, banking sector size, gross domestic product, money supply, South Africa
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