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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Politik dan Komunikasi Islamic Tourism Al-Balad : Jurnal Hukum Tata Negara dan Politik Islam International Journal of Geography, Social, and Multicultural Education (IJGSME) Jurnal Suara Politik
Ilham Dary Athallah
UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
Religion Arts Humanities Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences Transportation

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BENDING WITHOUT BREAKING: STRUCTURAL REALISM AND ASEAN’S STRATEGIC HEDGING IN THE ACFTA 3.0 UPGRADE Ilham Dary Athallah; Hayara Khairia; Tsabita Husna; Nadine Rizqi Auliya; Fatikhatur Rizqiah
AL-BALAD : Jurnal Hukum Tata Negara dan Politik Islam Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Al-Balad : Jurnal Hukum Tata Negara dan Politik Islam
Publisher : PRODI HUKUM TATANEGARA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59259/ab.v5i2.377

Abstract

This paper examines ASEAN’s strategic behavior in upgrading the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) to “Version 3.0” in 2025 through the lens of structural realism and its auxiliary concepts of balancing, bandwagoning, and hedging. The ACFTA 3.0 Upgrade, signed in October 2025, deepens economic integration between a bloc of smaller Southeast Asian states and regional great power China – a counterintuitive development from a realist perspective given stark power asymmetry. The central question is why ASEAN member states agreed to upgrade the ACFTA to version 3.0 despite structural power asymmetry with China, and through what strategic mechanisms they managed the attendant risks to autonomy. A qualitative case study methodology is employed, analyzing treaty texts, official statements, trade and investment data, and diplomatic actions. The findings reveal that ASEAN approach to ACFTA 3.0 reflects a hedging strategy combining selective economic bandwagoning with China and concurrent diversification through parallel partnerships to preserve long-term strategic autonomy. Evidence of growing dependence – such as surging ASEAN–China trade to alongside a widening trade deficit favoring China, coexists with indicators of soft balancing, including efforts to secure safeguards in the agreement and diversified strategic alignments by certain member states. The discussion interprets these findings in light of structural realist expectations. It argues that ASEAN’s collective behavior, though seemingly at odds with realism’s prediction of balancing, can be explained by the constraints faced by weaker states in an anarchic (Waltz 1979,88) order: when direct balancing is unviable, states will bandwagon or hedge to protect their interestthe. The paper concludes that ASEAN’s upgrade of ACFTA is best understood as a hedging move under power asymmetry: a rational strategy to enhance prosperity and bind a rising China into cooperation, albeit at the cost of growing economic dependence that could limit ASEAN’s long-term strategic autonomy.
SOVEREIGNTY AT STAKE: BALANCE-OF-THREAT AND THE INSTITUTIONAL DESIGN OF THE MALACCA STRAITS PATROL, 2004–2025 Ilham Dary Athallah; Hayara Khairia; Tsabita Husna; Nadine Rizqi Auliya; Mochammad Sirojuddin Afandy
Jurnal Suara Politik Vol 5, No 1 (2026): Vol. 5 No. 1 Juni 2026
Publisher : FISIPOL UM Sumbar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31869/.v5i1.7894

Abstract

This article analyzes the establishment and sustained operation of the Malacca Straits Patrol (MSP) through a structural realist framework, drawing on balance-of-threat theory and defensive realism. The central question asks why the littoral states of the Malacca Strait established and maintained sovereignty-constrained military cooperation against piracy, and what causal mechanisms explain both the form and the limits of that cooperation. Employing within-case process tracing and structured content analysis of official documents, incident databases, and diplomatic records across three threat-level phases (2004–2025), the study traces a causal mechanism from dual threat escalation piracy surpassing economic tolerance thresholds and extra-regional intervention signals generating sovereignty anxiety through balance- of-threat alignment to sovereignty-constrained cooperative security. The findings demonstrate that the MSP’s institutional architecture is not a design failure but a theoretically predicted outcome: states cooperated at precisely the institutional depth that captured security benefits without incurring sovereignty costs. The study contributes a formally specified realist explanation for a case dominated by liberal and descriptive accounts, extends balance-of-threat theory from inter-state military alliances to cooperative responses against non-traditional security threats, and identifiesquot;sovereignty-constrained cooperationquot; as a theoretically predictable institutional modality under defensive realism.
Cooperation: AS Survival Calculus: State Interest and Power Asymmetry in the ASEAN-UN Joint Strategic Plan of Action on Disaster Management (2021-2025). Ilham Dary Athallah; Hayara Khairia; Tsabita Husna; Andi Zarkarsyih Nur; Nafisa Wanda Vertika Sari
JIPSI Jurnal Ilmu Politik dan Komunikasi Vol 16 No 1 (2026): JIPSi : Jurnal Ilmu Politik dan Komunikasi
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik, Universitas Komputer Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34010/jipsi.v16i1.19827

Abstract

Abstract This study examines why states invest in multilateral cooperation in disaster management despite the availability of unilateral alternatives, using a defensive structural realist approach to the ASEAN–UN Joint Strategic Plan of Action on Disaster Management (JSPADM) 2021–2025. The objective of this research is to analyze whether state interests, power asymmetry, and sovereignty considerations can explain the prioritization, resource commitments, and implementation dynamics within the plan. The study employs process tracing and structured content analysis of official documents, high-level communiqués, and operational records. The findings reveal five main patterns: (1) the framing of national interest as a means of enhancing security, (2) resource contributions shaped by state power, (3) the securitization discourse of disasters, (4) institutional design that preserves sovereignty, and (5) relative gains dynamics reflected in ASEAN centrality and leadership competition. These findings indicate that ASEAN member states engage in the JSPADM insofar as participation enhances national resilience and regional standing while maintaining acceptable sovereignty costs. The study contributes by demonstrating that defensive structural realism remains relevant for analyzing non-traditional security issues, particularly in explaining disaster cooperation as a product of strategic calculation rather than mere normative convergence.
Divine Trust and Climate Diplomacy: Khilafah Stewardship in Muslim-Majority States’ participation in the 2024 IPEF Clean Economy Agreement Ilham Dary Athallah; Hayara Khairia; Tsabita Husna; Nadine Rizqi Auliya; Fatahillah Rasyidin
i-Tourism: Jurnal Pariwisata Syariah Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): I-TOURISM : Jurnal Pariwisata Syariah
Publisher : UIN Mahmud Yunus Batusangkar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31958/itourism.v6i1.16824

Abstract

Abstract This article examines how the Islamic principle of Khilafah – the notion of divinely ordained Earth stewardship – shapes the participation of Muslim-majority partners (Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei) in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) Clean Economy Agreement signed in June 2024 Alongside Khilafah, the principle of Istishlah (public interest, Maslahah Mursalah) is operationalized as a co-analytical lens, revealing how state actors apply juristic reasoning about collective welfare to justify international treaty commitments. Drawing on Islamic International Relations theory and extensive analysis of policy documents, ministerial statements, and investment forum data, the study bridges Islamic ethical concepts with empirical climate diplomacy. We operationalize Khilafah as a normative independent variable shaping state behavior through three normative pathways: leaders’ sense of amanah (sacred trust), aversion to fasād (earthly corruption), and pursuit of maṣlaḥah (public welfare). A qualitative, comparative case study methodology is employed to trace how these values manifest in rhetoric and policy choices, contrasted against secular counterparts (e.g. the United States, Australia). The results show that Indonesian, Malaysian, and Bruneian officials frame climate commitments as a moral duty to protect God’s creation and future generations, legitimizing ambitious climate actions beyond material incentives. The discussion highlights how an Islamic stewardship lens reveals motivations and legitimating strategies overlooked by conventional IR theories. The study concludes that Khilafah principles can significantly inform international environmental cooperation, expanding both IR theory and policy praxis.
Norms in the Field: Super Garuda Shield, Discursive Socialization, and the Construction of Indo-Pacific Security Identity (2007–2025) Ilham Dary Athallah; Hayara Khairia; Tsabita Husna; Ronna Rihadatul Arsy; Bhintank Mi’thori Danial Firdaus
International Journal of Geography, Social, and Multicultural Education Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): 1 June 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/ijgsme.v4n1.p92-109

Abstract

The annual Super Garuda Shield exercises have developed from a U.S.–Indonesia bilateral engagement into a recurrent multinational event that, by the mid-2020s, convened thousands of personnel and a widening circle of participating and observing states across multiple domains of training. Official communications surrounding the exercises repeatedly frame cooperation in terms of sovereignty, interoperability, partnership, and a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” positioning Super Garuda Shield as a productive site for examining how security cooperation is narrated as a norm-governed community rather than merely an instrument of capability building. It employs a longitudinal qualitative discourse analysis grounded in social constructivism, supplemented by the norm life cycle model and security community theory. The analysis identifies three empirical trajectories: a shift from bilateral to group-referential identity language across exercise iterations; the stabilization of interoperability as an uncontested procedural norm; and the progressive routinization of 'free and open Indo-Pacific' framing from advocacy toward taken-for-granted vocabulary, consistent with (Finnemore and Sikkink 1998)'s cascade and internalization stages. The discussion argues that repeated exercise participation functions as a socialization mechanism that generates “thin” but politically consequential expectations of cooperative security accounting for participation patterns and rhetorical convergence that neorealist and institutionalist frameworks leave underdetermined (USINDOPACOM 2025).
Co-Authors Andi Zarkarsyih Nur Bhintank Mi’thori Danial Firdaus Fatahillah Rasyidin Fatikhatur Rizqiah Hayara Khairia Hayara Khairia Mochammad Sirojuddin Afandy Nadine Rizqi Auliya Nafisa Wanda Vertika Sari Ronna Rihadatul Arsy Tsabita Husna