Rafif Putra W
Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya

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The Impact of Inflation, World Oil Prices, and the Rupiah Exchange Rate on Sectoral Stock Index Returns in the Indonesia Stock Exchange Arya Firma Arifin; Maulana Ikhrom Ababil; Rafif Putra W; Leonardus Reynhard Peri; Maria Yovita R. Pandin
Journal of Macroeconomics and Social Development Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): December
Publisher : Indonesian Journal Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47134/jmsd.v3i2.1002

Abstract

This study examines the effects of inflation (X1), global crude oil prices (X2), and the rupiah exchange rate (X3) on sectoral stock index returns (Y) in the energy sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This research employs a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia, the Indonesia Stock Exchange, and Investing.com over a five-year period. Multiple linear regression analysis was conducted using SPSS to evaluate both partial and simultaneous effects of the independent variables on stock index returns. The results show that inflation has a negative but statistically insignificant effect on sectoral stock index returns, while global crude oil prices exhibit a positive yet insignificant influence. In contrast, the rupiah exchange rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on sectoral stock index returns. These findings indicate that exchange rate movements play a dominant role in explaining return variability in the energy sector. Therefore, investors and policymakers should pay close attention to exchange rate stability when making investment and economic policy decisions.
Time Series and Cross-Sectional Analysis of Tobacco Companies for the 2021–2024 Period Case Study: PT Indonesian Tobacco Tbk, PT Gudang Garam Tbk, and PT HM Sampoerna Tbk Rafif Putra W; Lufvi Selvia Febrianti; Muhammad Iqbal Ainur R; Cholis Hidayati
Journal of Business Economics and Agribusiness Vol. 3 No. 2 (2026): February
Publisher : Indonesian Journal Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47134/jbea.v3i2.1024

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and compare the financial performance of PT HM Sampoerna Tbk, PT Gudang Garam Tbk, and PT Indonesian Tobacco Tbk during the 2021–2024 period using time series and cross-sectional approaches. The research employs a quantitative descriptive method based on secondary data obtained from audited annual financial statements published by the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Financial performance is measured using liquidity, activity, solvency, and profitability ratios. Time series analysis is applied to observe performance trends over four years, while cross-sectional analysis is used to compare company performance in the 2024 fiscal year. The results show that PT HM Sampoerna Tbk demonstrates the most balanced and stable financial performance, characterized by efficient asset utilization, strong solvency, and consistent profitability. PT Gudang Garam Tbk exhibits very strong liquidity and a conservative capital structure, but relatively lower operational efficiency and profitability. Meanwhile, PT Indonesian Tobacco Tbk shows higher profit potential accompanied by declining liquidity, increasing leverage, and greater financial risk. In conclusion, differences in company scale, operational efficiency, and financial strategy significantly influence financial sustainability in the Indonesian tobacco industry.