Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
0.408
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Akpienbi I. O.
Unknown Affiliation
Arts Computer Science & IT Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences

Published : 2 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 2 Documents
Search

 1 
Non-Sinusoidal Predictive Model of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in Nigerian Fuel Price Hike Akpienbi I. O.; Bello M.I.; Atureta M.S.; Barde A.
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 2 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i2.9367

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamics of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices in Nigeria using a non-sinusoidal high-order mathematical model applied to annual data spanning 1990–2022. The proposed modelling framework is designed to represent long-term price growth behaviour and structural progression rather than periodic or cyclical movements. Model parameters were estimated using the least squares estimation technique to ensure optimal fitting of the observed price series. The adequacy of the model was evaluated through validation error metrics and correlation analysis, providing quantitative measures of goodness-of-fit and predictive reliability. The findings indicate that the non-sinusoidal high-order model effectively represents the sustained upward trajectory of PMS prices over the study period, reflecting gradual economic adjustments, inflationary pressures, and long-term policy influences. However, deviations between observed and model-generated prices were evident during periods characterized by abrupt policy interventions, subsidy reforms, and regulatory shocks, which introduced short-term irregularities into the price structure. Despite these disturbances, the model maintained a strong capacity to describe the overall price evolution and underlying trend of PMS pricing in Nigeria. This study contributes to energy price modelling literature by demonstrating the relevance of non-sinusoidal growth-based approaches for analysing long-term energy price behaviour in regulated and policy-sensitive economic environments.
Sinusoidal Predictive Model of Nigeria Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS) Price Akpienbi I. O.; Bello M.I.; Atureta M.S.; Barde A.
Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art Vol 4 No 4 (2026): Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/ajstea.v4i4.10310

Abstract

Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS) prices in Nigeria exhibit substantial fluctuations that challenge conventional linear forecasting approaches and complicate policy and market planning. This study applies a seventh-order sinusoidal wave-function model to analyze and predict PMS price dynamics in Nigeria. Annual PMS price data were modeled using a sinusoidal framework designed to capture the recurring oscillatory behavior associated with regulated fuel-pricing systems. A logarithmic transformation and the Least Squares Method (LSM) were employed to reduce data dispersion and obtain robust parameter estimates. Model performance was validated through correlation analysis between observed and predicted prices, while pilot testing was conducted to assess the model’s reliability, stability, and predictive relevance. The results demonstrate a high degree of association between actual PMS prices and model estimates, indicating that the sinusoidal structure adequately represents the cyclical behavior of PMS prices during the study period. The findings further suggest that PMS price variations are not explained primarily by linear temporal progression but follow a wave-like pattern consistent with periodic policy adjustments, market interventions, and regulatory decisions. The proposed model therefore provides a useful analytical framework for interpreting PMS price fluctuations and forecasting future price movements within Nigeria’s fuel-pricing regime. This study contributes a nonlinear modeling approach that may support evidence-based fuel-pricing analysis, regulatory planning, and policy decision-making.
Co-Authors Atureta M.S. Barde A. Bello M.I.