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Geographically Weighted Panel Regression Modeling On The Effect Of Natural Disaster Factors On The Gini Ratio In Indonesia Oktaviana Nur Rohmatulillah; Dwi Endah Kusrini
Jurnal Penataan Ruang Vol. 21 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Penataan Ruang 2026
Publisher : Jurnal Penataan Ruang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j2716179X.v21i1.9201

Abstract

Indonesia is a country with a high risk of natural disasters, ranking second with the highest disaster risk index in the world, reaching 43.50%. In the period 2015-2024, tens of thousands of disaster events were recorded in various provinces, which had a significant impact on socio-economic aspects. The severity of economic losses caused by natural disasters has redistributed income inequality and poverty levels, where vulnerable groups have become even more vulnerable, while non-vulnerable groups with better adaptive capacities have become even less vulnerable. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of natural disasters, including disaster risk, social, and economic aspects, on income inequality in Indonesia using the Geographically Weighted Panel Regression (GWPR) method to examine regional differences. The analysis results show that the impact of natural disasters, which includes aspects of disaster risk, social and economic aspects, causes an increase in the Gini ratio. It is known that the disaster risk index variable, population density, percentage of unexpected costs, and distribution of ADHB GRDP according to household expenditure have a significant effect on the Gini ratio using a random effect model. Using the GWPR method shows better performance than the random effect panel data regression model with an adjusted R2 value of 93,86% considering the error or random effect. The results indicate that inter-regional income inequality is shaped not only by economic factors, but also by regional disaster vulnerability and fiscal capacity for recovery.