Jurnal Penataan Ruang
Vol. 21 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Penataan Ruang 2026

Geographically Weighted Panel Regression Modeling On The Effect Of Natural Disaster Factors On The Gini Ratio In Indonesia

Oktaviana Nur Rohmatulillah (Department of Business Statistics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, Indonesia)
Dwi Endah Kusrini (Department of Business Statistics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 May 2026

Abstract

Indonesia is a country with a high risk of natural disasters, ranking second with the highest disaster risk index in the world, reaching 43.50%. In the period 2015-2024, tens of thousands of disaster events were recorded in various provinces, which had a significant impact on socio-economic aspects. The severity of economic losses caused by natural disasters has redistributed income inequality and poverty levels, where vulnerable groups have become even more vulnerable, while non-vulnerable groups with better adaptive capacities have become even less vulnerable. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of natural disasters, including disaster risk, social, and economic aspects, on income inequality in Indonesia using the Geographically Weighted Panel Regression (GWPR) method to examine regional differences. The analysis results show that the impact of natural disasters, which includes aspects of disaster risk, social and economic aspects, causes an increase in the Gini ratio. It is known that the disaster risk index variable, population density, percentage of unexpected costs, and distribution of ADHB GRDP according to household expenditure have a significant effect on the Gini ratio using a random effect model. Using the GWPR method shows better performance than the random effect panel data regression model with an adjusted R2 value of 93,86% considering the error or random effect. The results indicate that inter-regional income inequality is shaped not only by economic factors, but also by regional disaster vulnerability and fiscal capacity for recovery.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jpr

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Environmental Science Social Sciences Transportation

Description

Jurnal Penataan Ruang is a journal managed by the Department of Urban and Regional Planning and published by the Directorate of Research and Community Service of Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember , Surabaya, Indonesia. The primary objective of JPR is to serve as a platform for disseminating ...