Abdul Rouf
Diponegoro University

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EFEK PEREKONOMIAN NEGARA (INFLASI, UPAH MINIMUM, KONSUMSI, KURS TUKAR, INVESTASI, DAN PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH) TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN MANUFAKTUR DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM) Galih Priyo Anggoro; Indah Susilowati; Hastarini Dwi Atmanti; Abdul Rouf
ECONOMIST: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 3 No. 3 (2026): Juli 2026
Publisher : CV Sentra Nusa Connection

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63545/economist.v3i3.304

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel makroekonomi inflasi, upah minimum, konsumsi rumah tangga, kurs tukar, investasi, dan pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan industri manufaktur di Indonesia baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Menggunakan data time series tahunan periode 1990–2024 (N=35), penelitian ini mengaplikasikan pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM) dua tahap Engle-Granger yang mampu mengidentifikasi dinamika penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang. Uji stasioneritas Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) dan Phillips-Perron (PP) mengkonfirmasi seluruh variabel terintegrasi pada orde I(1). Uji kointegrasi Engle-Granger menunjukkan adanya hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang yang signifikan antar variabel, ditandai nilai ADF residual sebesar -4,595 (p=0,000). Hasil estimasi persamaan jangka panjang menunjukkan bahwa investasi berpengaruh positif sangat signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan manufaktur (β=8,794; p=0,006), sedangkan pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh negatif signifikan (β=-12,638; p=0,001) yang mengindikasikan adanya efek crowding out jangka panjang. Estimasi model ECM menghasilkan koefisien Error Correction Term (ECT) sebesar -1,046 (p=0,000), mengkonfirmasi mekanisme koreksi yang valid dengan kecepatan penyesuaian sebesar 104,62% per tahun. Dalam jangka pendek, perubahan investasi (ΔINV: β=8,156; p=0,017) dan perubahan pengeluaran pemerintah (ΔGOV: β=-15,461; p=0,001) menjadi variabel paling dominan. Seluruh uji diagnostik normalitas Jarque-Bera, heteroskedastisitas Breusch-Pagan, efek ARCH, dan autokorelasi Ljung-Box terpenuhi, mengkonfirmasi validitas inferensi statistik model. Temuan ini menegaskan peran strategis investasi sebagai pendorong utama pertumbuhan manufaktur dan perlunya reorientasi belanja pemerintah agar lebih bersifat komplementer terhadap investasi swasta di sektor industri.
THE REMITTANCE PARADIGM: IMPLICATIONS OF INDONESIAN MIGRANT WORKERS FOR POVERTY ALLEVIATION Abdul Rouf; Deden Dinar Iskandar; Purbayu Budi Santosa; Wahyu Widodo
Finance : International Journal of Management Finance Vol. 3 No. 4 (2026): June
Publisher : Publikasi Inspirasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62017/finance.v3i4.152

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the spatial distribution of the banking system, internal migration patterns, domestic remittance flows, and the level of financial inclusion in Indonesia. Spatial inequality in access to formal financial institutions remains a fundamental problem for inclusive economic development. Based on World Bank data (2024), the number of commercial bank branches in Indonesia is only around 11.69 units per 100,000 adults, indicating the limited reach of banking services in non-urban areas (World Bank, 2024). Meanwhile, the level of account ownership in Indonesia has increased to 83% in 2023, a significant increase compared to 48% in 2011 (World Economic Forum, 2025). In the external context, Bank Indonesia (2024) reported that the value of remittances from Indonesian migrant workers reached US$ 9.95 billion in 2023, a 3.6% increase from the previous year. These remittance flows have great potential to expand the savings base, strengthen monetary stability, and support the expansion of financial inclusion (Canales et al., 2023; Inoue & Hamori, 2016). However, this potential has not been fully realized due to spatial disparities and financial literacy gaps between urban and rural areas. The methodology used is multilevel logistic regression with microdata from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS, 2021) and macrodata from Bank Indonesia (2023), the Financial Services Authority (2024), and the Central Statistics Agency (2024). This model allows for testing hierarchical and spatial relationships between individual, household, and provincial levels. The main variables include financial inclusion (formal account ownership), internal migration status, remittance receipts, and bank branch density per km² as a proxy for geospatial access to the banking system. The results of the study show that spatial access to the banking system has a positive and significant effect on financial inclusion (Beck, Demirgüç-Kunt, & Levine, 2023). Additionally, internal migration and remittance receipts also strengthen the probability of individuals using formal financial services, indicating the existence of spatial interactions (spillover) between regions. Provinces with higher bank network density tend to transmit positive effects on financial inclusion in surrounding provinces (Krugman, 1991). These findings emphasize the importance of a geospatial approach in formulating national financial inclusion policies. Equal distribution of banking networks, strengthening financial literacy for migrants and remittance recipients, and integrating spatial data between financial institutions are key strategies for promoting more inclusive and equitable economic growth between regions.
Testing the Effect of General Election on Market Reaction of Islamic vis-à-vis Conventional Capital Market: Does Presidential Election Cycle Theory Exist in Indonesia? Abdul Rouf; Muhammad Adnan
Global Review of Islamic Economics and Business Vol. 12 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University Sunan Kalijaga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14421/grieb.2024.122-04

Abstract

This paper investigates the Presidential Election Cycle Theory by examining the Indonesian stock market's reaction to presidential elections from 2004 to 2024. Specifically, it compares the reactions of Islamic and conventional capital markets. Employing an event study methodology with abnormal return as the indicator, the analysis utilizes secondary data comprising daily stock prices for seven days preceding and following each election. The findings indicate that presidential elections have a significant effect on capital market reactions, as evidenced by abnormal return values. However, the Islamic capital market demonstrates greater resilience than its conventional counterpart in responding to political events, such as presidential elections. The study concludes that the Presidential Election Cycle Theory is applicable to Indonesia, necessitating its consideration by policymakers, investors, and all stakeholders.