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All Journal Populer: Jurnal Penelitian Mahasiswa Student Scientific Creativity Journal
Hary Yuda Prasetia
Universitas PTIQ Jakarta
Arts Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Social Sciences Other

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Consumer Confidence, Islamic Msme Financing, Inflation, Ramadan, And Real Sales: ARDL Hary Yuda Prasetia; A. Rasikhu Z. Haramain
Student Scientific Creativity Journal Vol. 4 No. 2 (2026): Student Scientific Creativity Journal
Publisher : Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/sscj-amik.v4i2.6141

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of the Consumer Confidence Index, Islamic MSME financing, inflation, and Ramadan on the Real Sales Index in Indonesia. The study uses monthly data from January 2022 to June 2025 obtained from Bank Indonesia, the Central Statistics Agency, and Islamic Banking Statistics published by the Financial Services Authority. The analysis method used is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) because the results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity test indicate a combination of integration orders I(0) and I(1), with no variables integrated at order I(2). Based on the criteria for selecting the best model, the ARDL(3,2,1,2,3) model was obtained. The results of the bounds test indicate a long-term relationship between variables with an F-statistic value of 4.592, which is greater than the upper bound value at the 5 percent significance level. In the long term, the Consumer Confidence Index, Islamic MSME financing, and inflation have a negative and significant effect on the Real Sales Index. Meanwhile, the Ramadan variable is proven to have a positive and significant effect on increasing real sales. The results of this study indicate that consumer psychological factors, monetary conditions, and religious momentum play a significant role in shaping the dynamics of public consumption in Indonesia. Furthermore, diagnostic tests demonstrate that the research model is free from autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity and exhibits a good level of stability, making it suitable for use as a basis for economic analysis and policy formulation.
Konsep Uang dalam Fikih Islam dan Shariah Monetary Policy Model (SMPM): Perspektif Stabilitas Moneter Indonesia Hary Yuda Prasetia
Populer: Jurnal Penelitian Mahasiswa Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): Juni: Populer: Jurnal Penelitian Mahasiswa
Publisher : Universitas Maritim AMNI Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58192/populer.v5i2.4376

Abstract

Money is a vital instrument in the economic system, functioning as a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account. In Islamic jurisprudence, money is not only viewed as an economic aspect, but also as a normative and ethical one. This study aims to explore the concept of money in Islamic jurisprudence and develop a Shariah Monetary Policy Model (SMPM) as an alternative framework for Islamic monetary policy. In contrast to previous studies that tend to be limited to normative debates regarding the legitimacy of fiat money or descriptive analysis of Islamic monetary instruments, this study offers novelty by integrating classical Islamic jurisprudence theory on money with contemporary empirical data (Indonesian inflation, sukuk, zakat) in one conceptual model. The research approach used is a systematic literature review (SLR) with secondary data reinforcement. The results of the study confirm that money in Islam must be related to the real sector, avoid speculation, and support the equitable distribution of wealth. The SMPM is developed through the integration of money, Islamic monetary instruments (sukuk, profit sharing), Islamic social instruments (zakat, waqf), and maqasid al-shariah. This model has the potential to strengthen monetary stability, support social justice, and is relevant not only for Indonesia but also as a global alternative to the interest-based system.
Co-Authors A. Rasikhu Z. Haramain