<![CDATA[Bali's tuna export logistics system relies on two modes: belly cargo flights and direct shipping, which are vulnerable to policy disruptions. This study aims to: (1) analyze quantitative changes in PSBB and PPKM policies on the volume and value of Balinese tuna exports; (2) examine the relationship between air logistics capacity and export performance and explain export volume and value divergence; and (3) evaluate the structural recovery capacity of the Balinese tuna export logistics system in the post-pandemic period. Data from October 2016 to June 2023 were analyzed using Seasonal-Trend decomposition Loess (STL), Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Multiple Interrupted Time Series Analysis (MITSA) with Newey-West correction. MITSA confirmed that April 2020 PSBB caused a decline in export value of -USD 7,718,352 (p = 0.0000829***), while July 2021 Emergency PPKM resulted in a divergence: export volume remained relatively stable while export value exhibited a sustained downward trend, indicating economic pressure that was not reflected by export volume. International flight data at I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport confirmed a -99.7% collapse during the PSBB1 phase, with regression showing a strong relationship between flight frequency and export value (r = 0.923; p < 0.001). The disruption of sea transportation was confirmed by Meratus Line's decision to suspend services from Benoa Port (blank sailings) since April 2020. The findings indicate a structural shift in Bali's dual-modal logistics system, from an efficient mode to a defensive mode. Data-driven logistics strategies and national policies are needed to restore competitiveness of Indonesian fisheries exports.]]>
