STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY OF DUAL-MODE LOGISTICS IN BALI TUNA EXPORTS: AN STL, ARIMA, AND MITSA APPROACH: KERENTANAN STRUKTURAL LOGISTIK DUAL-MODA EKSPOR TUNA BALI: PENDEKATAN STL, ARIMA, DAN MITSA

Charles Paulinus Marulitua Sitanggang (Study Program of Agro-Maritime Logistics, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, IPB Dramaga Campus, Bogor 16680, Indonesia)
Taryono Taryono (1) Study Program of Agro-Maritime Logistics, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, IPB Dramaga Campus, Bogor 16680, Indonesia 2) Department of Aquatic Resources Management, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, IPB Dramaga Camp)
Joko Santoso (1) Study Program of Agro-Maritime Logistics, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, IPB Dramaga Campus, Bogor 16680, Indonesia 2) Department of Aquatic Product Technology, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, IPB Dramaga Campus,)

Jurnal Teknologi Perikanan dan Kelautan
Vol. 17 No. 2 (2026): MAY 2026

Bali's tuna export logistics system relies on two modes: belly cargo flights and direct shipping, which are vulnerable to policy disruptions. This study aims to: (1) analyze quantitative changes in PSBB and PPKM policies on the volume and value of Balinese tuna exports; (2) examine the relationship between air logistics capacity and export performance and explain export volume and value divergence; and (3) evaluate the structural recovery capacity of the Balinese tuna export logistics system in the post-pandemic period. Data from October 2016 to June 2023 were analyzed using Seasonal-Trend decomposition Loess (STL), Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Multiple Interrupted Time Series Analysis (MITSA) with Newey-West correction. MITSA confirmed that April 2020 PSBB caused a decline in export value of -USD 7,718,352 (p = 0.0000829***), while July 2021 Emergency PPKM resulted in a divergence: export volume remained relatively stable while export value exhibited a sustained downward trend, indicating economic pressure that was not reflected by export volume. International flight data at I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport confirmed a -99.7% collapse during the PSBB1 phase, with regression showing a strong relationship between flight frequency and export value (r = 0.923; p < 0.001). The disruption of sea transportation was confirmed by Meratus Line's decision to suspend services from Benoa Port (blank sailings) since April 2020. The findings indicate a structural shift in Bali's dual-modal logistics system, from an efficient mode to a defensive mode. Data-driven logistics strategies and national policies are needed to restore competitiveness of Indonesian fisheries exports.