Linda Rassiyanti
Institut Teknologi Sumatera, Indonesia

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Growth Model Study Using a Comparison of Gompertz, Logistic, and Weibull Models Indah Suciati; Vina Nurmadani; Yoga Aji Sukma; Linda Rassiyanti
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): JULY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24127/sciencestatistics.v3i2.9423

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease or COVID-19 has been a concern for the world, including Indonesia. The very rapid transmission of COVID-19 has had a wide impact on all communities around the world, especially Indonesia. To see the transmission of COVID-19 cases, which continues to increase rapidly, we can use a growth model. The growth model is a non-linear regression model that is used to describe growth behavior. These models can be exponential, sigmoidal, or S-shaped curves. The purpose of this study was to determine the growth curve model of positive COVID-19 cases in Indonesia using the Gompertz, Logistic, and Weibull models. After that, the model evaluation will be carried out using the coefficient of determination as a parameter, so that the best model will be obtained that can predict more accurately the growth of positive COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. The best model that can predict the growth of positive COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is the Gompertz model, with a coefficient of determination is 0.99064.
Perbandingan Estimator Robust Huber dan Tukey’s Biweight terhadap Berbagai Skema Pencilan dalam Regresi Linier Linda Rassiyanti; Indah Suciati; Vina Nurmadani; Yoga Aji Sukma
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): JULY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24127/sciencestatistics.v3i2.9630

Abstract

Regresi linier secara umum menggunakan pendekatan Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) namun sering kali mengalami gangguan ketika data mengandung pencilan (outlier), yang dapat menyebabkan estimasi parameter menjadi bias dan tidak akurat. Regresi robust dikembangkan untuk mengatasi kelemahan OLS dengan menurunkan sensitivitas terhadap pencilan. Terdapat dua fungsi kerugian yang sering digunakan dalam regresi robust, yaitu Huber Loss dan Tukey’s Biweight Loss. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan performa dua metode regresi robust, yaitu Huber Loss dan Tukey’s Biweight, dalam menghadapi berbagai skema pencilan. Data simulasi dibangkitkan dengan parameter intersep dan slope masing-masing sebesar 3 dan 2, kemudian ditambahkan pencilan secara sistematis pada variabel X, Y, maupun keduanya, dengan proporsi 10%, 20%, dan 30%. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa Tukey’s Biweight memberikan estimasi parameter yang lebih stabil pada kondisi pencilan ekstrem, terutama saat pencilan terjadi pada variabel Y atau kombinasi X dan Y. Sedangkan, Huber Loss cenderung menghasilkan Mean Squared Error (MSE) yang lebih rendah dalam beberapa kondisi, mencerminkan adanya trade-off antara bias dan variansi. Dengan demikian, Tukey’s Biweight lebih cocok untuk pencilan ekstrem, sedangkan Huber Loss lebih efisien dalam kondisi pencilan ringan hingga sedang. Linear regression, commonly estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, is known for its sensitivity to outliers, which can lead to biased and inefficient parameter estimates. Robust regression was developed to overcome the weaknesses of OLS by reducing sensitivity to outliers. Two commonly used loss functions in robust regression are Huber Loss and Tukey’s Biweight Loss. This study aims to compare the performance of these two robust regression methods—Huber Loss and Tukey’s Biweight—in handling various outlier scenarios. Simulated data were generated with intercept and slope parameters set at 3 and 2, respectively, and outliers were systematically introduced to the X variable, the Y variable, or both, in proportions of 10%, 20%, and 30%. The analysis results indicate that Tukey’s Biweight provides more stable parameter estimates under extreme outlier conditions, especially when outliers occur in the Y variable or in both X and Y. Meanwhile, Huber Loss tends to yield lower Mean Squared Error (MSE) in certain conditions, reflecting a classic trade-off between bias and variance. Therefore, Tukey’s Biweight is more suitable for extreme outliers, whereas Huber Loss is more efficient under mild to moderate outlier conditions.
Modeling and Predicting Indonesia’s Inflation Using the ARIMA Model Linda Rassiyanti; Rohmi Dyah Astuti; Yuliana
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): JANUARY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Inflation is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators used to evaluate the stability and performance of a country's economy. This study aims to model and predict Indonesia’s monthly inflation rate using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach. The dataset consists of monthly inflation observations from January 2010 to December 2025 obtained from Bank Indonesia. The analysis begins with testing the stationarity of the series using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test, followed by model identification through the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) plots. Several candidate models are estimated, including ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (1,1,0), and ARIMA (1,1,1). Model comparison based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) indicates that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model provides the lowest AIC value and is therefore selected as the most appropriate model. The forecasting results suggest that Indonesia’s inflation rate is expected to remain relatively stable at around 3.63% over the next six periods. However, the prediction intervals become wider as the forecasting horizon increases, reflecting growing uncertainty in longer-term predictions.