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All Journal TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Jurnal Teknologi
Thomas Oka Pratama
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering Mechanical Engineering

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Earthquake magnitude prediction based on radon cloud data near Grindulu fault, Indonesia using the statistical method Sunarno Sunarno; Thomas Oka Pratama; Faridah Faridah; Nugroho Ananto; Hermin Kartika Sari; Rony Wijaya; Memory Motivanisman Waruwu
TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Vol 23, No 3: June 2025
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/telkomnika.v23i3.26494

Abstract

Earthquake prediction is one of the most challenging and vital tasks that demands new methodologies for improving the accuracy of predictions. The research aims to present how radon gas concentration fluctuations are associated with the prediction of earthquakes in the Eurasian-Indo-Australian Plates. The paper discusses a statistical method of forecasting earthquake magnitudes greater than M4.5 from real-time radon gas monitoring close to the Grindulu Fault, Pacitan, East Java, Indonesia. This developed model has had the least errors in the form of mean absolute error (MAE), 0.30; mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), 0.06; root mean square error (RMSE), 0.55; mean squared error (MSE), 0.30; symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), 0.06; complex normalized mean absolute percentage error (cnMAPE), 0.97; error absolute average (EAA), 0.30; and error relative average (ERA), -0.11, showing great accuracy and uniformity in prediction. These observations support the model’s efficiency that may be adopted in earthquake early warning systems for better disaster preparedness. Predictive errors are reduced, and there is support for improved disaster management strategy, public safety education, and effective emergency response personnel training. This study can be used as a foothold for further advances in earthquake prediction methodologies and refinement of early warning systems.
Feasibility and Technical Reliability Study of a Standalone Rooftop Solar Power Plant System Using Python Pvlib: A Case Study on Renewable Energy Engineering Laboratory Building of Universitas Malikussaleh Shaki S. Putra; Hermin Kartika Sari; Thomas Oka Pratama; Reza Putra
Jurnal Teknologi Vol 26, No 1 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Lhokseumawe

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30811/teknologi.v26i1.8505

Abstract

This study evaluates the technical feasibility and reliability limits of a standalone rooftop solar power plant system for the Renewable Energy Laboratory at Universitas Malikussaleh, North Aceh. Utilizing the pvlib Python library and NASA POWER meteorological data from 2022 to 2024, a high-resolution time series simulation was conducted to model energy yield, battery dynamics, and Loss of Power Supply Probability (LPSP). The results reveal a significant seasonal reliability gap, while the system achieves optimal performance in dry months with LPSP 1%, it suffers critical power failures during the monsoon season, with LPSP peaking at 31.80% in December due to consecutive low irradiance days. Furthermore, the energy balance analysis highlights a system inefficiency where substantial energy curtailment occurs during high-irradiance periods despite severe deficits in wet months. Consequently, a pure off-grid configuration is deemed technically unfeasible for critical laboratory loads without unrealistic oversizing. The study concludes that transitioning to a PV-Hybrid topology with backup generation is essential to ensure operational continuity while complying with current non-export regulatory constraints.
Co-Authors Faridah Faridah Hermin Kartika Sari Memory Motivanisman Waruwu Nugroho Ananto Rony Wijaya Shaki S. Putra Sunarno Sunarno