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All Journal Sriwijaya Journal of Forensic and Medicolegal Sriwijaya Journal of Otorhinolaryngology
Priscilla Kapoor
Department of Radiology, Mumbai State Hospital, Mumbai, India
Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Health Professions Immunology & microbiology Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Medicine & Pharmacology Neuroscience Public Health

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Spatiotemporal Trends and Attributable Risk Factors of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Southeast Asia (1990–2023): An Ecological Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study with Projections to 2050 Linda Purnama; Priscilla Kapoor; Mustafa Mahmud; Alessandra Navos
Sriwijaya Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): Sriwijaya Journal of Otorhinolaryngology
Publisher : Phlox Institute: Indonesian Medical Research Organization

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59345/sjorl.v3i2.306

Abstract

Background: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an Epstein–Barr virus-associated epithelial malignancy with a strikingly uneven geography concentrated in Southeast Asia and southern China. Its region-specific burden, temporal dynamics and attributable risk factors have not been synthesised in a dedicated spatiotemporal ecological analysis. Objective: To characterise NPC burden, trends and attributable risks across Southeast Asia. Methods: We conducted an ecological analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates. Age-standardised incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates for the GBD Southeast Asia region (1990–2021, GBD 2021) and constituent ASEAN countries (to 2023, GBD 2023) were compiled; temporal trends were summarised by the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC); attributable fractions for tobacco, alcohol and occupational carcinogens were obtained from GBD comparative risk assessment; and age-standardised rates were projected toward 2050. Results: In 2021 the Southeast Asia region recorded the highest NPC mortality of any world region (ASMR 1.60 per 100,000). Age-standardised rates declined (EAPC: incidence −0.39, mortality −0.76, DALYs −0.84% per year), yet absolute incident cases more than doubled (6,209 to 13,661; +120%). National ASIR ranged from 1.3 (Cambodia) to 14.2 (Singapore); Indonesia carried the greatest absolute burden (5,163 cases; 4,306 deaths). Incidence rose in Indonesia (EAPC +0.8), Laos (+0.7) and Viet Nam (+0.6). Alcohol-attributable burden increased most steeply (Southeast Asia EAPC +2.27), against declining tobacco- and occupational-attributable rates. Conclusion: Southeast Asia bears the world's heaviest NPC mortality; falling age-standardised rates mask a rising absolute burden and a growing alcohol-attributable component, underscoring the need for Epstein–Barr virus-informed early detection and region-tailored prevention.
Failure to Palpate and Failure to Image: Quantifying Standard-of-Care Departure in Fatal Delayed Intracranial Foreign Body Diagnosis, Indonesia Aisyah Andina Rasyid; Priscilla Kapoor; Febria Suryani
Sriwijaya Journal of Forensic and Medicolegal Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): Sriwijaya Journal of Forensic and Medicolegal
Publisher : Phlox Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59345/sjfm.v3i2.247

Abstract

Background. Retained intracranial foreign bodies in patients alert at a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of 15 are a rare, lethal and medicolegally exposed failure in Indonesian assault casework, yet the share attributable to specific documentable procedural omissions is unquantified. Objective. To quantify the association of failure to palpate the wound bed and non-adherence to computed tomography (CT) guidelines with delayed diagnosis, and to derive medicolegal attribution metrics. Methods. This retrospective multi-centre cohort (STROBE) examined 45 confirmed retained intracranial foreign bodies among 1,240 mild traumatic brain injury presentations (prevalence 3.63%, 95% CI 2.72–4.82) at three North Sumatran trauma centres, 2019–2023. Diagnosis beyond 24 hours was the pre-specified outcome. Analysis of aggregate data used exact conditional and Firth-penalised odds ratios, Holm multiplicity control, and partial identification of the multivariable model across 4,000 admissible joint arrangements. Results. Diagnosis was delayed in 14 of 45 cases (31.1%, 95% CI 19.5–45.7). Failure to palpate the wound bed carried an exact conditional odds ratio of 29.86 (4.79–281.0; p < 0.001) and CT non-adherence 20.88 (3.57–174.7; p < 0.001). Palpation failure achieved sensitivity 78.6%, specificity 90.3% and area under the curve 0.844; the attributable fraction was 76.3% (50.8–96.1). Adjusted odds ratios were bounded, not estimated, because aggregate data cannot identify a multivariable model. Conclusion. Two zero-cost omissions dominate a fatal diagnostic failure; recording wound-bed palpation and the imaging decision is clinically protective and, under KUHAP Articles 133 and 179 and Law No. 17 of 2023, is what a visum et repertum requires.
Co-Authors Aisyah Andina Rasyid Alessandra Navos Febria Suryani Linda Purnama Mustafa Mahmud