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All Journal Advances In Social Humanities Research Insight : International Journal of social research
Vika Fransisca
Institute Prima Bangsa Cirebon
Humanities Computer Science & IT Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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Development of Hierarchical Bayesian Statistical Model For Prediction of Multidimensional Poverty Patterns: Application of Spatial-Temporal Analysis to Disadvantaged Village Data in Eastern Indonesia Vika Fransisca; Wahyu Eko Saputro
Advances In Social Humanities Research Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): Advances In Social Humanities Research
Publisher : Sahabat Publikasi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46799/adv.v4i1.550

Abstract

Multidimensional poverty in Eastern Indonesia is still a serious problem that is not only influenced by economic factors, but also by educational, health, infrastructure, and complex spatial conditions. Disadvantaged villages in the region face high development inequality, while the approaches to poverty measurement and prediction used so far are still conventional and less adaptive to spatial and temporal variations. This study aims to develop a Hierarchical Bayesian statistical model based on spatial-temporal analysis to predict multidimensional poverty patterns more accurately and contextually. The method used was a quantitative approach with spatial-temporal hierarchical Bayesian modeling, using multivariate panel data from 450 disadvantaged villages in East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, and West Papua during the period 2015–2022. The model was analyzed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) techniques for parameter estimation and risk prediction. The results show that the model is able to map poverty risk clusters spatially with high accuracy and capture significant temporal dynamics, especially during the pandemic. The largest contribution comes from indicators of sanitation and access to clean water. This model generates predictive risk and trend maps that can be used to support microdata-based development policies, as well as strengthen the accuracy of interventions in high-risk villages more effectively.
Climate Resilience, Agroforestry and REDD+ Governance in the Midst of Indonesia's Climate Change Vika Fransisca
International Journal of Social Research Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): Insight : International Journal of Social Research
Publisher : Worldwide Research Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59888/insight.v3i3.67

Abstract

Climate change in Indonesia presents serious challenges due to deforestation, land degradation, and increasing greenhouse gas emissions from the forestry sector. As a country with the third largest tropical forest in the world, Indonesia needs an adaptive strategy that is not only able to reduce emissions, but also strengthen people's welfare. Agroforestry is considered a potential solution that supports the implementation of REDD+ schemes to achieve the 2030 NDC targets. This study aims to analyze the role of agroforestry in strengthening climate resilience while exploring its integration with REDD+ governance in Indonesia. A qualitative approach with a case study design was used through in-depth interviews, participatory observations, and documentation studies in forest villages in Kalimantan and Sumatra. The data was analyzed using thematic analysis techniques with source triangulation to ensure the validity of the findings. Research has found that agroforestry systems are able to improve soil quality, absorb higher carbon than monocultures, and support farmer income diversification by up to 20–30%. The integration of agroforestry with REDD+ governance also increases community participation and strengthens local institutions. However, limited funding, technical capacity, and governance transparency remain challenges. The study's recommendations include strengthening carbon incentives, building community capacity, and more participatory and equitable management of REDD+. Agroforestry has proven to function not only as a technical mitigation strategy, but also as a socio-economic instrument that strengthens climate resilience and supports the sustainability of REDD+ governance in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Wahyu Eko Saputro