<![CDATA[Background: The postpartum period exposes first-time (primiparous) mothers to simultaneous physical, psychological, and social change, raising the risk of mental health disorders, and they lack prior experience of the maternal role.Objective: To analyze biopsychosocial risk factors for the mental health of postpartum primiparous mothers and to develop a predictive model for the risk of mental health disorders.Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 85 primiparous mothers in the working area of Belimbing Community Health Centre, Padang, selected by consecutive sampling. Instruments were the Postpartum Fatigue Scale, Perceived Maternal Parenting Self-Efficacy scale, Birth Satisfaction Scale-Revised, Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support, and economic status; mental health was assessed with the Barkin Index of Maternal Functioning and the Symptom Checklist-90. Data were analyzed using chi-square, multivariate logistic regression, and ROC curve analysis.Results: Most respondents (84.7%) were not at risk of mental health disorders. Postpartum physical condition, self-efficacy, social support, and economic status were significantly associated with maternal mental health, whereas childbirth experience was not (p = 0.061). Multivariate analysis retained postpartum physical condition (OR = 6.661) and social support (OR = 7.144; p = 0.008), with social support the most dominant. Mothers with severe physical complaints and low social support had a 75.6% predicted probability of disorder; the model achieved an AUC of 0.811 (95% CI 0.689-0.934), sensitivity 61.5%, and specificity 81.9%.Conclusion: Postpartum physical condition and social support are the main factors influencing primiparous mothers’ mental health. The model shows good discriminative ability and may support early detection.]]>
