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Kunto Aji Utomo
Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta, Sleman, Indonesia
Humanities Education Public Health Social Sciences

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Comparison of Student and Class Projection Methods in Indonesia Primary and Secondary Education Utomo, Kunto; Surya, Priadi
Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pengajaran Vol 58 No 1 (2025): April
Publisher : Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23887/jpp.v58i1.89657

Abstract

Accurate planning in education requires reliable student and class size projections to anticipate resource needs, address challenges and ensure education quality. This study aims to respond to the need to evaluate various projection methods to identify the most effective approach in estimating student and class size in educational institutions in Indonesia, while assessing the effectiveness of eight different methods in projecting student and class size. The method used is comparative research with quantitative analysis techniques.  The subjects of this study were the number of students and study groups from the 2019/2020 to 2022/2023 academic years in all provinces in Indonesia, then assessed the accuracy of each projection method for the 2023/2024 academic year and the first semester of 2024/2025, Secondary data collection was obtained through the Ministry of Education and Culture's Dapodik website. Data analysis was conducted through inferential statistical analysis. Accuracy assessment was conducted by calculating the error rate using MAPE to evaluate the effectiveness of each method in forecasting the number of students and study groups. Furthermore, each method was given a score to obtain an order based on the level of accuracy. The results of this study reveal that the order of the most accurate methods of projecting the number of students is Naive Forecasting, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Linear Regression, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, Holt's Method, Linear Regression, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Naive Forecasting, Autoregressive, Autoregressive Moving Average, Moving Average, and finally Simple Exponential Smoothing. The results of this research are expected to help anticipate student growth and formulate more efficient, sustainable, and equitable education resource allocation strategies.
Factors of Acceptance and Use of the Merdeka Mengajar Platform and Its Influence on Teachers' Professional Competence Kunto Aji Utomo; Slamet Lestari
Jurnal Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pendidikan Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): July
Publisher : LPPM Undiksha

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23887/jppp.v9i2.92738

Abstract

Teachers have accessed the PMM, but not all features have been utilized, resulting in the platform's full potential not being fully realized. This study aims to analyze the acceptance and use factors of the Merdeka Mengajar (PMM) Platform and its impact on teacher professional competence using the Unified Model of Electronic Government Adoption (UMEGA). The method used was quantitative with an ex-post facto design, and the sampling technique was proportional cluster random sampling involving 105 teachers. Data were collected through questionnaires. The data analysis technique used was Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with SmartPLS V.4.0.0.9. The results showed that performance expectations positively and significantly affected attitudes towards using PMM by 43.5%. Effort expectations had a positive but insignificant effect on attitudes towards using PMM by 10.0%. Social influence positively and significantly affected attitudes towards using PMM by 19.5%. Facilitating conditions had a positive but insignificant effect on behavioral intentions towards using PMM by 14.5%. Facilitating conditions positively and significantly affected expectations towards using PMM by 65.9%. Perceived risk has a negative and significant effect on individual attitudes regarding the use of PMM by -25.4%. Attitudes toward the use of PMM have a positive and significant effect on behavioral intentions to use PMM by 72.7%. Intentions to use PMM positively and significantly affect behavioral intentions to use PMM by 55.4%. Behavioral intentions to use PMM have a positive but insignificant effect on teacher professional competence by 24.8%.
Co-Authors Priadi Surya Slamet Lestari