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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam Jurnal Ekonomika Dan Bisnis
Nani Suhartini
Program Studi Ekonomi Syariah, Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Peran Bank Syariah dalam Menghadapi Ketidakpastian Kebijakan Geopolitik dan Ekonomi: Studi dari Negara-negara OKI Nani Suhartini; Mohamad Ainun Najib; Dahlia Bonang
Jurnal Ekonomika Dan Bisnis (JEBS) Vol. 6 No. 3 (2026): Mei - Juni
Publisher : CV. ITTC INDONESIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47233/jebs.v6i3.4694

Abstract

The increasing global geopolitical tensions, economic policy uncertainty, oil price volatility, and post-pandemic economic instability have created significant challenges for the Islamic banking industry, particularly in Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries. This study aims to examine the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world oil prices (WTI), inflation, and economic growth (GDP) on the profitability of Islamic banks measured by Return on Assets (ROA). This research employs a quantitative approach using balanced panel data from 20 Islamic banks across 10 OIC countries during the 2020–2024 period, consisting of 100 observations. Data were collected from annual reports, Bloomberg, World Bank, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Caldara and Iacoviello’s GPR Index, and Baker et al.’s EPU Index. The analysis method uses panel data regression through Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM), with model selection conducted using Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests.The results show that REM is the most appropriate model. Geopolitical risk and inflation have a positive and significant effect on ROA, while world oil prices negatively and significantly affect ROA. Meanwhile, EPU and GDP growth do not significantly influence Islamic bank profitability.This study implies that Islamic banking demonstrates relatively strong resilience against global uncertainty due to its asset-backed financing and risk-sharing principles, thereby strengthening the role of Islamic finance as a stabilizing force in the financial system of OIC countries.
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE S&P/OIC COMCEC 50 SHARIAH STOCK INDEX Nani Suhartini; Ririn Tri Ratnasari; Shafinar Ismail
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam (Journal of Islamic Economics and Business) Vol. 11 No. 1 (2025): JANUARY - JUNE 2025
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jebis.v11i1.65500

Abstract

Investors and policymakers in Islamic financial markets are expected to comprehend variables impacting the performance of Standard and Poor (S and P)/Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) COMCEC 50 Islamic Stock Index. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the effects of S&P/OIC COMCEC 50 Islamic Stock Index on inflation, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices, United States Economic Policy Uncertainty (US EPU), and geopolitical risk (GPR). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used in the quantitative monthly data analysis spanning 2019-2023. The analysis estimates the adjustment rate toward long-term equilibrium using Error Correction Term (ECT). Furthermore, the short and long term links between global variables and S&P/OIC COMCEC 50 Index are analyzed. The results show that Islamic stock index benefits greatly from WTI oil prices over the long and short terms. Even though inflation and US EPU have no direct effects on the index, GPR shows a strong positive influence over the periods. However, the considerable ECT coefficient points to a quick adjustment process toward long-term equilibrium after external shocks. The significance of oil prices and geopolitical dynamics as major drivers of changes in Islamic financial markets is supported even though US EPU and worldwide inflation have a less significant effect. Based on the description, this research aimed to offer strategic recommendations for Islamic financial markets’ external risk management. Future research should incorporate other macroeconomic factors such as exchange rates, Islamic interest rates, and fiscal stability to understand the durability of Islamic financial index.
Co-Authors Bonang, Dahlia Mohamad Ainun Najib Ririn Tri Ratnasari Shafinar Ismail