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All Journal Journal of Malikussaleh Public Economics Journal of Accounting Research, Utility Finance and Digital Assets (JARUDA)
Jariah Abu Bakar
Universitas Malikussaleh
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education

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THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, EDUCATION AND OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT ON POVERTY IN INDONESIA Dina Yuliana; Saharuddin Saharuddin; Jariah Abu Bakar; Umaruddin Usman
Journal of Malikussaleh Public Economics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): JOURNAL OF MALIKUSSALEH PUBLIC ECONOMICS
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Malikussaleh

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29103/jompe.v8i2.24560

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of economic growth, education,and open unemployment on poverty in Indonesia from 1990 to 2024. Thedata used in this study is secondary data in the form of annual time seriesfrom 1990 to 2024 obtained from the Indonesian Central StatisticsAgency. The analysis method used is Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) regression analysis with a quantitative approach using theEviews 12 program. The results show that the economic growth variablein the short and long term has a negative and significant effect on povertyin Indonesia. The education variable (RLS) in the short term does nothave a significant effect on poverty in Indonesia, but in the long term,economic growth has a negative and significant effect on poverty. Theopen unemployment variable in the short term has a negative andsignificant effect on poverty, but in the long term, open unemployment hasa positive and significant effect on poverty in Indonesia.
DETERMINANTS OF INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC STABILITY: THE ROLE OF NATURAL COMMODITIES, FISCAL, AND MONETARY POLICIES Ahmad Hambali Nugraha; Jariah Abu Bakar; Ichsan; Cut Putri Mellita Sari
Journal of Accounting Research, Utility Finance and Digital Assets Vol. 5 No. 3 (2027): January - ON PROGRESS
Publisher : PT. Radja Intercontinental Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22729191

Abstract

As an open developing economy, Indonesia's economic stability remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly fluctuations in natural resource commodity prices, while also being shaped by domestic fiscal and monetary policy dynamics. This study analyzes the partial and simultaneous effects of natural resource commodity price fluctuations, government expenditure, inflation, exchange rate, and foreign exchange reserves on Indonesia's economic stability, grounded in the Commodity Price Shocks Theory, Dutch Disease Theory, the Keynesian fiscal multiplier theory, and the Buffer Stock Theory of reserves. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary time-series data for 1975-2025 sourced from the World Bank, Bank Indonesia, and Statistics Indonesia, analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model in EViews. The best-fitting model is ARDL (10,4,4,4,1,4), with a significant error correction coefficient of -0.959 and an R-squared of 0.991. The Bounds Test confirms a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. In the short run, all five variables significantly affect economic stability at various lags, whereas in the long run none are statistically significant, although coefficient directions remain consistent with theory. The model passed all classical assumptions and stability tests, underscoring the need for growth diversification and stronger fiscal-monetary policy effectiveness.
Co-Authors Ahmad Hambali Nugraha Cut Putri Mellita Sari Dina Yuliana Ichsan Saharuddin Saharuddin Umaruddin Usman