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Marina Oktari
Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia

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Assessing the Long-Run Effects of Institutional Distortions, Economic Growth, and Labor Participation on Educated Unemployment: An Islamic Economics Perspective Chairani Firstia Rizal; Marina Oktari; Aryadimas Suprayitno; Sulistya Rusgianto
Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE) Vol 9 No 2 (2026): Sharia Economics
Publisher : Universitas KH. Abdul Chalim Mojokerto

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Educated unemployment remains one of the most critical challenges in Indonesia, reflecting a persistent mismatch between the education system and labor market demand. Despite continuous economic growth, the absorption of educated labor remains limited, indicating structural problems in employment creation. This study aims to analyze educated unemployment in Indonesia by examining the roles of economic growth, institutional distortions, and labor force participation in both the short run and the long run. The study employs a quantitative approach using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) based on annual time-series data from 1986 to 2024. Data are obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the World Bank, and Transparency International. The results indicate the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. Economic growth is positively associated with educated unemployment in the long run, suggesting jobless growth and limited creation of high-skilled jobs. Institutional distortions, reflected in weak governance and non-merit-based recruitment, persistently worsen employment outcomes for graduates. Increases in labor force participation further intensify competition when job creation does not keep pace. The findings suggest that reducing educated unemployment in Indonesia requires inclusive growth, stronger institutional governance, and better alignment between education and labor market needs. Policy efforts should also promote entrepreneurship and productive employment through Islamic social finance instruments to support sustainable job creation for educated workers.
The Impact of Profit-and-Loss Sharing (PLS) and Non-PLS Sharia Financing on Economic Growth: A VECM Approach Marina Oktari; R Moh Qudsi Fauzi; Sulistya Rusgianto
Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE) Vol 9 No 2 (2026): Sharia Economics
Publisher : Universitas KH. Abdul Chalim Mojokerto

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This study examines the impact of profit-sharing (mudharabah and musyarakah) and non-PLS (murabahah and qardh) Islamic financing schemes on Indonesia's economic growth by disentangling the short-run dynamics from the long-run equilibrium adjustment through a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Quarterly data of real GDP per capita and total Islamic financing by contract type for 2015 Q1-2023 Q4 are analyzed. Stationarity was assessed by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, cointegration through the Johansen procedure, and optimal lag selection by the likelihood ratio criterion. The VECM framework estimates error correction coefficients and short-run dynamic coefficients, complemented by Granger causality, impulse response function (IRF), and variance decomposition (VD) tests to explore feedback between variables and shock propagation. The short-term dynamics show no significant effect of Islamic financing instruments on growth. In the long run, musyarakah has a significant negative impact, while qardh has a significant positive impact. Variance decomposition shows that PLS instruments collectively explain 6.4-7.9 percent of the variance in GDP growth over ten quarters. This study contributes to developing financing strategies to achieve stable and sustainable financing.