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Herdyana
Universitas Pakuan
Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences

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From Risk Neutral to Risk Taker: A Case Study of Credit Risk Deterioration in Indonesian Regional Development Bank Thiar Cnur; Herdyana; Hari Gursida
International Journal Administration, Business & Organization Vol 7 No 2 (2026): IJABO
Publisher : Asosiasi Ahli Administrasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61242/ijabo.26.757

Abstract

Regional development banks in Indonesia face increasing pressure to balance credit expansion and risk management. This study investigates the dynamics of credit risk deterioration and risk preference shifts at Bank BJB Bogor Branch during the 2020-2024 period. A qualitative descriptive approach with a case study strategy was employed, complemented by quantitative descriptive analysis. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with branch managers, credit analysts, and risk management officers, supported by internal financial reports, OJK publications, and relevant banking regulations. Risk preference was measured using the Risk Preference Index, Loan-to-Deposit Ratio, and Credit Expansion Rate, while credit risk was assessed through Non-Performing Loan ratios and Capital Adequacy Ratio. The results reveal three critical findings. First, the branch experienced a significant risk preference shift from risk neutral to risk taker category driven by aggressive credit expansion alongside declining third-party funds. Second, the MSME credit segment suffered catastrophic quality deterioration reaching an alarming non-performing level in the final observation year. Third, a structural funding vulnerability was identified as regional government deposits declined dramatically, forcing the Loan-to-Deposit Ratio to exceed the optimal threshold. The study concludes that high capital adequacy alone is insufficient to contain credit risk when aggressive expansion into high-risk segments is unsupported by proportional risk management capacity and disciplined post-disbursement monitoring.
Market Perception versus Financial Performance: The Mediating Role of Price to Earnings Ratio in Explaining Stock Returns in the Non-Cyclical Consumer Sector Rina Rustikasari; Herdyana; Hari Gursida
International Journal Administration, Business & Organization Vol 7 No 2 (2026): IJABO
Publisher : Asosiasi Ahli Administrasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61242/ijabo.26.753

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between financial performance and stock returns by incorporating market perception through the mediating role of the price-earnings ratio (PER). Using panel data from non-cyclical consumer sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2020–2024 period, this research examines whether traditional financial ratios namely Current Ratio (CR), Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER), Return on Assets (ROA), and Firm Size remain relevant in explaining stock returns. The study employs panel data regression and mediation analysis to explore both direct and indirect effects. The findings reveal that Current Ratio, Return on Assets, and Firm Size each have significant direct effects on both PER and stock returns, while Debt-to-Equity Ratio does not. PER also plays a partial mediating role, transmitting the effect of Current Ratio, Return on Assets, and Firm Size on stock returns. These results indicate that market perception adds an explanatory layer on top of company fundamentals rather than replacing it, suggesting that both channels jointly shape investor behavior in this sector. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence from an emerging market context, emphasizing that stock returns are not solely driven by financial performance but are also shaped by behavioral and market-based factors. The findings imply that investors should integrate both fundamental analysis and market perception when making investment decisions.
Co-Authors Hari Gursida Rina Rustikasari Thiar Cnur