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All Journal Journal of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Management Business and Accounting Public Policy : Jurnal Aplikasi Kebijakan Publik dan Bisnis
Robbi Djefri Lakatua
Universitas Kristen Indonesia Maluku
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Application of Single Exponential Smoothing for Sales Forecasting: A Data-Driven Approach to Demand Management Robbi Djefri Lakatua; Jondry Adrin Hetharie; Kiz Inalessy Manuhutu
Public Policy : Jurnal Aplikasi Kebijakan Publik dan Bisnis Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025): Public Policy : Jurnal Aplikasi Kebijakan Publik dan Bisnis
Publisher : Univiversitas Dr. Djar Wattiheluw

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Abstract

Forecasting is a method used to predict future values based on historical data. This study aims to analyze and apply the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method to forecast the sales volume at Cafe Sibu-Sibu 01 for the upcoming period. The data used in this research consist of monthly sales records from January 2022 to December 2023. The forecasting results are then evaluated for accuracy using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The findings indicate that the sales volume for January 2024 is projected to increase to approximately IDR 68,882,000. With a smoothing constant of 0.1, the obtained values are MAD = 8,210.9, MSE = 114,138,110, and MAPE = 11.4%. Based on these results, it is concluded that the Single Exponential Smoothing method can be effectively used to forecast sales volume at Cafe Sibu-Sibu 01.
Neuroticism and Perceived Research Productivity : Mediating and Moderating Roles of Learning Orientation and Job Autonomy Jondry Adrin Hetharie; Robbi Djefri Lakatua; Mozes. D Istia
Journal of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Management Business and Accounting Vol 4 No 4 (2026): Volume 4, Issue 4, July 2026
Publisher : CV. Sakura Digital Nusantara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61255/jeemba.v4i4.1560

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to examine the effect of neuroticism on faculty Perceived Research Productivity by considering the mediating role of learning orientation and the moderating effect of job autonomy. Design/methodology/approach – This study used a quantitative approach with a cross-sectional survey design. Data were collected from 100 faculty members at Universitas Kristen Indonesia Maluku through online questionnaires. The data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). Finding/Results – The results show that neuroticism has a positive effect on faculty Perceived Research Productivity, both directly and indirectly through learning orientation. Learning orientation mediates the relationship between neuroticism and Perceived Research Productivity. Job autonomy strengthens the effect of neuroticism on Perceived Research Productivity but weakens the relationship between neuroticism and learning orientation. The moderated mediation model explains 71.6% of the variance in Perceived Research Productivity. Originality/Value – This study contributes to the literature by applying Trait Activation Theory in the context of academic Perceived Research Productivity. It highlights the importance of psychological traits, learning orientation, and job autonomy in improving faculty research performance. The findings also offer practical implications for higher education institutions in designing autonomy-based and learning-oriented human resource development strategies.
Co-Authors Jondry Adrin Hetharie Kiz Inalessy Manuhutu Mozes. D Istia