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All Journal Jurnal BETA (Biosistem dan Teknik Pertanian)
Ida Bagus Putu Gunadya
Program Studi Teknik Pertanian, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian, Universitas Udayana. Kampus Bukit Jimbaran, Badung-Bali
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology

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Penggunaan Beberapa Model Peramalan (Forecasting) untuk Produksi Gula Kristal Putih di PT. Perkebunan Nusantara X Immanuel Damanik; Ida Bagus Putu Gunadya; I Gusti Ngurah Apriadi Aviantara
Jurnal BETA (Biosistem dan Teknik Pertanian) Vol 10 No 1 (2022): April
Publisher : Program Studi Teknik Pertanian dan Biosistem, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian, Universitas Udayana, Badung, Bali, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JBETA.2022.v10.i01.p03

Abstract

Forecasting is the process of making a future prediction based on the present and past data using trend analysis. The purpose of this study was(1) to know historical pattern of refined sugar production, (2) to know what are the forecasting models that be used for prediction, (3) to get the best forecasting model by using accuracy test. This study use secondary data from PT Perkebunan Nusantara X and processing data by using Microsoft Excel. Based on analysis results exponential smoothing by using α = 0.8 is the best model. As comparison by using moving average with 2 period and double exponential smoothing with α = 0.6. The accuracy test of exponential smoothing α = 0.8 showing with value MAD = 2, MSE = 9, and MAPE = 36%. On validity test of forecasting models, exponential smoothing had showing value MAD = 1,025, MSE = 2,113,927, MAPE = 22%. Results of forecasting production with 6 period on the future is R1 = 5,106, R2 =5,047, R3 = 5,035, R4 = 5,032, R5 = 5,032, R6 = 5,032.
Co-Authors I Gusti Ngurah Apriadi Aviantara Immanuel Damanik