I Gusti Ngurah Apriadi Aviantara
Program Studi Teknik Pertanian, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian, Universitas Udayana. Kampus Bukit Jimbaran, Badung-Bali

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Penggunaan Beberapa Model Peramalan (Forecasting) untuk Produksi Gula Kristal Putih di PT. Perkebunan Nusantara X Immanuel Damanik; Ida Bagus Putu Gunadya; I Gusti Ngurah Apriadi Aviantara
Jurnal BETA (Biosistem dan Teknik Pertanian) Vol 10 No 1 (2022): April
Publisher : Program Studi Teknik Pertanian dan Biosistem, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian, Universitas Udayana, Badung, Bali, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JBETA.2022.v10.i01.p03

Abstract

Forecasting is the process of making a future prediction based on the present and past data using trend analysis. The purpose of this study was(1) to know historical pattern of refined sugar production, (2) to know what are the forecasting models that be used for prediction, (3) to get the best forecasting model by using accuracy test. This study use secondary data from PT Perkebunan Nusantara X and processing data by using Microsoft Excel. Based on analysis results exponential smoothing by using α = 0.8 is the best model. As comparison by using moving average with 2 period and double exponential smoothing with α = 0.6. The accuracy test of exponential smoothing α = 0.8 showing with value MAD = 2, MSE = 9, and MAPE = 36%. On validity test of forecasting models, exponential smoothing had showing value MAD = 1,025, MSE = 2,113,927, MAPE = 22%. Results of forecasting production with 6 period on the future is R1 = 5,106, R2 =5,047, R3 = 5,035, R4 = 5,032, R5 = 5,032, R6 = 5,032.
Efisiensi Kinerja Combine Harvester pada Pemanenan Padi Varietas Unggul (Studi Kasus di Desa Polongaan Sulawesi Barat) I Kadek Murjana; I Wayan Tika; I Gusti Ngurah Apriadi Aviantara
Jurnal BETA (Biosistem dan Teknik Pertanian) Vol 10 No 2 (2022): September
Publisher : Program Studi Teknik Pertanian dan Biosistem, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian, Universitas Udayana, Badung, Bali, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JBETA.2022.v10.i02.p21

Abstract

The rice harvest time is almost the same in a large rice field area and the availability of a small amount of labor is therefore required mechanical tools to replace it, one of the machine tools used is the Combine Harvester rice harvester machine. Rice harvester Combine Harvester ridding type Kubota DC 70 brand is an agricultural machine that functions to harvest rice through the stages of hooking, directing, cutting, threshing, and cleaning the grain which is carried out in an integrated manner in one process. The purpose of this study is to determine the efficiency of performance and the needs of the Combine Harvester machine needed for harvesting rice. This research consists of three main stages, namely machine and land preparation, machine performance testing, and data analysis. The parameters observed were the width of the complement of the harvester, the speed of advance of the Combine Harvester, the area of land harvested, the time of harvesting, the theoretical performance capacity, the actual performance capacity, the performance efficiency, and the needs of the Combine Harvester. The results showed that the working speed of the Combine Harvester was 1.35 m/sec. The actual performance capacity is 0.574 ha/hour or 57.4 are/hour. The theoretical performance capacity is 0.921 ha/hour or 92.1 are/hour. Combine Harvester's performance efficiency at 61.6%. The need for a Combine Harvester is 2 units for harvesting rice in the village of pods.